Banks, Copper Bearish; Natgas bullish; Bond to Cash

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish
- natural gas: bullish
- copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash

My other six signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and my other signals based on the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a great week.

Natural Gas, Silver to Cash

Two signals go to cash on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: natural gas and silver.

That means eight of my 10 signals based on the free weekly COT reports will be in cash.

Only the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond are bullish.

See my latest signals table for detailed numbers on trader positioning in all 10 markets to see if you can figure out what it all means.

Good luck this week, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers.

Also, Happy Fourth of July to U.S. readers later in the week.

Nasdaq-100 Signal to Cash After Three Months Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- cash for the Nasdaq-100 (which has been bullish three months, since March 17)
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond (which means the bond yield would fall)

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Other signals remain the same as last week.

Good luck this week, and to Quebec readers, Joyeuse St-Jean!

S&P 500 Goes Bullish: COT Data

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are betting big on the equities rally, if positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is any guide.

The latest Commitments of Traders report shows commercials boosting their net futures and options position to 1.9 standard deviations above the recent average, up from 1.11 standard deviations last week.

My SPX position moves from bearish to bullish on the coming week's open of trading thanks to the bullish commercial trader positioning.

See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trader using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and Happy Father's Day to my dad and all the other dad readers out there. Hope you had a great day.

S&P 500 Sentiment Keeps Looking Up, While Banks, Crude and Copper Cash Out: COT Reports

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading thanks to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

It's cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and copper based on my reading of the COT reports issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Meanwhile, "smart money" commercial hedger sentiment in S&P 500 futures and options continues to improve, as you can see on my latest signals table.

My SPX signal goes from bearish to bullish on next week's open of trading (i.e. the week of June 16).

Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Traders Love the Rally; Natural Gas Goes Bearish: CFTC's COT Report

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are giving the all-clear sign for an equities rally, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options continued a seven-week build-up in their net position as a portion of total open interest.

Their positioning has flipped my signal from bearish, which it has been since April 14, to bullish, with a trade delay of two weeks. That means the signal takes effect the open of trading the week of June 16.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the S&P 500 and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark of U.S. financials, also goes bullish, but this one with no trade delay -- i.e. taking effect on this week's open of trading.

As well, natural gas goes from cash to bearish on this week's open, while crude oil goes bullish.

Good luck this week.

COTs Timer On the Web

Congrats to us! COTs Timer was mentioned on the list "50 Blogs Every Serious Trader Should Read" over at Trader HQ.

Thanks, guys, and thanks to atoast2trading for the mention on Twitter.

S&P 500 Commercials Steadily Less Bearish

No new signals this week. Another quiet week in the land of the Commitments of Traders reports.

See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.

The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.

Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.

Good luck this week.

Copper Bearish: COT Data Signal

One signal takes effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bearish for copper.

That's based on commercial hedgers in copper future and options getting significantly bearish in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest, according to Friday's weekly COT update.

Large speculators had already had a bearish posture in their total open interest -- the other component of my copper signal.

See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other nine signals I trade using the COT data. My other existing signals remain the same this week.

Good luck this week.

Traders Quiet: COT Report

All quiet in the land of COT.

My signals from last week remain the same this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Trader positioning did shift in markets as usual, but not enough to switch any of my signals, as you can see on my newly updated latest signals table.

Good luck this week - and Happy Mother's Day to all you moms out there, including my own. Я тебе люблю.

Banks, Gold to Cash: COT Signals

Two signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold both go to cash this week.

See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Good luck this week.

Cash for Crude, Natural Gas and Copper

Three setups go to cash on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

They are natural gas, crude oil and copper.

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning for these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Bullish This Week for Banks and Silver, Bearish for Crude

Apologies for missing my usual weekly post early this week. Easter festivities got in the way.

I did, however, update my latest signals table with last week's data from the Commitments of Traders report.

Signals that took effect this week: bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and silver, bearish for crude oil. Other signals remained the same.

Tune back in after Friday's COT report for an updated signals table and a (more timely!) post here.

S&P 500 Bearish Signal This Week

Trader positioning continued to get more bearish across most equities and commodities, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report released Friday.

"Smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options have steadily reduced their net position as a portion of total open interest for six weeks.

They now stand at 1.39 standard deviations below my moving average.

The decline in their positioning started the week mass protests ousted Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych and Kremlin responded with an armed takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

My S&P 500 signal goes bearish on the open of trading this coming week.

Also going bearish this week is copper.

My latest signals table now shows a wall of red bearish signals for six of my 10 trading setups based on the free weekly COT reports.

Three signals are in cash, and only the Nasdaq-100 is bullish.

Good luck this week.

Commercial Hedgers Keep Up Heavily Bearish S&P 500 Stance

Was yesterday's market bloodbath a one-off -- or the start of something more serious?

Could be more of the latter, if trader positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is anything to go by.

As discussed in previous posts, the upward trend of positioning by "smart money" commercial hedgers that started in December is over. 

(Why "smart money"? That's because the S&P 500 commercial traders tend to get heavily bullish in their positioning when markets are about to go up and vice versa.)

That uptrend coincided with a nice little rally.

Friday's COT data shows the commercials at 1.32 standard deviations below my moving average in their net position as a percentage of total open interest. 

Gold Joins Silver in Bearish Column

The downturn in trader positioning has pushed my S&P 500 signal to bearish on the open of trading the week of April 14. 

See my latest signals table for more details.

As usual, though, the news from the COT data is somewhat mixed. My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes bullish for Monday's open of trading. And my signal for the Nasdaq-100 continues to be bullish.

In commodities, my signal for gold goes bearish on Monday's open, too -- joining my already bearish silver signal.

Natural gas also remains bearish.

Good luck this week.