And I thought last week's slew of bearish signals was a lot to chew on. The latest Commitments of Traders data makes last week look like small potatoes.
Traders are flying all over the place with contradictory positioning in various markets, seemingly unsure what to do. There's just a lot of uncertainty out there.
Last week's overwhelmingly bearish posturing has evolved into something more like just-get-me-off-the-bus.
It adds up to a bunch of cash signals (my latest signals table has all the details) for the markets I'm trading using the free weekly Commitments of Traders data.
My signal for the S&P 500 goes from bullish to bearish this coming week. And my Nikkei signal remains bearish.
But these markets move to cash: Nasdaq-100, BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond.
Even my bullish natural gas signal will go to cash in a week's time - i.e. on the open the week of Sept. 2.
Good luck in these trying times!
Sunday, 25 August 2013
Saturday, 17 August 2013
Bearish Move Accelerates in COT Data
Woah - the bearish move is accelerating in trader positioning, according to the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data.
A wash of red ink covers my latest signals table.
Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading:
- cash for natural gas (which then goes bullish the following week)
- bearish for the Nikkei, copper and crude oil
Also, my S&P 500 signal goes bearish in a week's time (on the open the week of August 26).
Keep your head down!
A wash of red ink covers my latest signals table.
Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading:
- cash for natural gas (which then goes bullish the following week)
- bearish for the Nikkei, copper and crude oil
Also, my S&P 500 signal goes bearish in a week's time (on the open the week of August 26).
Keep your head down!
Sunday, 11 August 2013
S&P 500 To Go Bearish Aug. 26; Natural Gas To Go To Cash Aug. 19
Looks like the silly season is upon us a little early this year. I'm talking about the often-wacky September-October stretch, which sometimes sees hiccups, crashes and other assorted market mayhem.
To wit, the latest Commitments of Traders report has turned my latest signals table somewhat upside down, with a mess of new signals:
- S&P 500: Happily bullish since March 18, the "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally given up the ghost. Their heavily bearish net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest puts my signal into the bearish column with a two-week delay (i.e. on the open the week of Aug. 26).
- Natural gas: My su-weet signal for natural gas stays bearish one more week - now that one's been a cu-raaaazy ride - then I'm back in cash.
- Gold and silver: These two dogs are finally going from bullish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.
Good luck this week.
To wit, the latest Commitments of Traders report has turned my latest signals table somewhat upside down, with a mess of new signals:
- S&P 500: Happily bullish since March 18, the "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally given up the ghost. Their heavily bearish net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest puts my signal into the bearish column with a two-week delay (i.e. on the open the week of Aug. 26).
- Natural gas: My su-weet signal for natural gas stays bearish one more week - now that one's been a cu-raaaazy ride - then I'm back in cash.
- Gold and silver: These two dogs are finally going from bullish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.
Good luck this week.
Sunday, 4 August 2013
Confusing Data For Equities in Latest COT Data
Odd mixed signals in the latest weekly Commitments of Traders report.
The S&P 500 commercial hedgers keep getting more heavily bearish in their futures and options positioning, moving to just a hair away from reversing my bullish signal.
Meanwhile, traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract got more bullish and sent my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index from cash to bullish on the coming week's open of trading.
See my latest signals table for all the gory details of the latest COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
My bearish signal for the Nikkei goes to cash on this week's open.
And yet, my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes bullish on the weekly open - which should be a bearish portent for equities.
Amid all this, my natural gas signal remains faithfully bearish one more week.
It's fascinating data - but trying to make sense of the COT reports can sometimes make your head hurt. Good luck this week!
The S&P 500 commercial hedgers keep getting more heavily bearish in their futures and options positioning, moving to just a hair away from reversing my bullish signal.
Meanwhile, traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract got more bullish and sent my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index from cash to bullish on the coming week's open of trading.
See my latest signals table for all the gory details of the latest COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
My bearish signal for the Nikkei goes to cash on this week's open.
And yet, my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes bullish on the weekly open - which should be a bearish portent for equities.
Amid all this, my natural gas signal remains faithfully bearish one more week.
It's fascinating data - but trying to make sense of the COT reports can sometimes make your head hurt. Good luck this week!
Saturday, 27 July 2013
Bearish Turn for Nasdaq-100
As equity markets enjoy a powerful rally, trader positioning is looking more bearish, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.
Friday's COT report, which shows how large trading institutions are positioned in 200-plus markets, put my signal for the Nasdaq-100 index into the bearish column.
The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.
It's based on the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more bearish, while the wrong-way large speculators, whom I fade, got more bullish.
See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in this and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options have also gotten strongly more bearish in the latest data, but not quite enough to end my bullish signal, which has been in effect since mid-March.
My Nikkei signal has been bearish since July 8.
My signal for natural gas, which has been short since May 20, remains bearish, and the data shows no signs of reversal (though that can of course change from week to week).
Good luck this week!
Friday's COT report, which shows how large trading institutions are positioned in 200-plus markets, put my signal for the Nasdaq-100 index into the bearish column.
The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.
It's based on the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more bearish, while the wrong-way large speculators, whom I fade, got more bullish.
See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in this and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options have also gotten strongly more bearish in the latest data, but not quite enough to end my bullish signal, which has been in effect since mid-March.
My Nikkei signal has been bearish since July 8.
My signal for natural gas, which has been short since May 20, remains bearish, and the data shows no signs of reversal (though that can of course change from week to week).
Good luck this week!
Saturday, 20 July 2013
Three-Week Bank Bullish Signal Ends
One new signal takes effect on the open of trading next week - and all else remains the same in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.
The new signal: cash for my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which has been bullish for three weeks.
I've just updated my latest signals table with the latest COT data on trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the CFTC's reports.
Have a good weekend, and good luck this week. See you after next week's COT report.
The new signal: cash for my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which has been bullish for three weeks.
I've just updated my latest signals table with the latest COT data on trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the CFTC's reports.
Have a good weekend, and good luck this week. See you after next week's COT report.
Monday, 15 July 2013
Bond to Cash
My signal for the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash on this week's open of trading. That's based on the latest trader positioning in bond futures and options as revealed by Friday's Commitments of Traders report.
All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on this free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
See more details on positioning in this and the other markets I trade on my latest signals table.
Good luck this week!
All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on this free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
See more details on positioning in this and the other markets I trade on my latest signals table.
Good luck this week!
Wednesday, 10 July 2013
Bearish Turn for Nikkei
New signal for this week based on the Commitments of Traders reports: bearish for the Nikkei Stock Average.
That signal would have taken effect on this week's open of trading, but there was a delay in the release of last week's COT report due to the July 4 holiday. And I didn't get around to updating my spreadsheets until this morning. Very sorry for the delay.
Doesn't look like the Nikkei has moved too much since the week's open, so I'm going to probably put on the position right now after I check for an appropriate security to do it with.
Unfortunately, the bearish Nikkei ETFs out there have very low volume, so I sometimes don't do bearish trades for the Nikkei just because I don't like the securities available.
Also for next week's open, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes to cash.
See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the recent COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
I'll be on the road for the next few days so my next update may be slightly delayed again. Apologies in advance -- and good luck this week.
That signal would have taken effect on this week's open of trading, but there was a delay in the release of last week's COT report due to the July 4 holiday. And I didn't get around to updating my spreadsheets until this morning. Very sorry for the delay.
Doesn't look like the Nikkei has moved too much since the week's open, so I'm going to probably put on the position right now after I check for an appropriate security to do it with.
Unfortunately, the bearish Nikkei ETFs out there have very low volume, so I sometimes don't do bearish trades for the Nikkei just because I don't like the securities available.
Also for next week's open, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes to cash.
See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the recent COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
I'll be on the road for the next few days so my next update may be slightly delayed again. Apologies in advance -- and good luck this week.
Sunday, 7 July 2013
Holiday Delay for COT Report
The past week's normally scheduled Commitments of Traders report is delayed until Monday afternoon because of the July 4 holiday. See you sometime after that release for my usual update.
Saturday, 29 June 2013
Banking on Banks
My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark for U.S. financials, goes bullish on next week's open of trading.
That's thanks in part to large speculators improving their futures and options positioning in the three-month Eurodollar contract, a closely watched indicator of liquidity in the financial system.
See my latest signals table for more details on the latest trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
All my other signals based on this data remain the same. That includes my bearish signal for natural gas, which has been doing nicely again. (Knock on wood!)
But if you're thinking of jumping in on that one now, keep in mind that my signals are backtested to have a certain probability of making money from open to close of the trade. Getting in part way through a signal isn't part of the backtesting.
Have a good weekend, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers, eh!
That's thanks in part to large speculators improving their futures and options positioning in the three-month Eurodollar contract, a closely watched indicator of liquidity in the financial system.
See my latest signals table for more details on the latest trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
All my other signals based on this data remain the same. That includes my bearish signal for natural gas, which has been doing nicely again. (Knock on wood!)
But if you're thinking of jumping in on that one now, keep in mind that my signals are backtested to have a certain probability of making money from open to close of the trade. Getting in part way through a signal isn't part of the backtesting.
Have a good weekend, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers, eh!
Friday, 21 June 2013
Big Bearish Move in Nikkei Ends Six-Month Signal
Big news for Japan's Nikkei Stock Average in this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report.
Commercial hedgers and small traders in Nikkei futures and options have dramatically reversed their long-time bullish open interest.
Their move suddenly ends my six-month bullish signal for the Nikkei, which has done very well. The signal goes to cash as of next week's open of trading.
See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the Nikkei and other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The commercial hedgers made an especially big move, with their Nikkei positioning plummeting from an extraordinary 3.1 standard deviations above average last week to 0.1 standard deviations above.
In other news, my bearish signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index also ends next week, moving to cash.
Good luck next week, and Joyeuse St-Jean to Quebec readers!
Commercial hedgers and small traders in Nikkei futures and options have dramatically reversed their long-time bullish open interest.
Their move suddenly ends my six-month bullish signal for the Nikkei, which has done very well. The signal goes to cash as of next week's open of trading.
See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the Nikkei and other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The commercial hedgers made an especially big move, with their Nikkei positioning plummeting from an extraordinary 3.1 standard deviations above average last week to 0.1 standard deviations above.
In other news, my bearish signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index also ends next week, moving to cash.
Good luck next week, and Joyeuse St-Jean to Quebec readers!
Saturday, 15 June 2013
Traders Tilt Bullish During Selloff, CFTC Data Shows
Copper goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading, while my signal for the Nasdaq-100 goes from bearish to bullish.
That's based on the latest weekly data in the Commitments of Traders reports, which detail trillions of dollars in futures and options positions in 200-plus markets.
I use the free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to get trading signals in 10 markets. See my latest signals table for more details on current positioning.
Other data shows traders in equities putting on positions that I interpret to be more bullish during the ongoing selloff, as you can see from the data for the Nikkei (which has been on a profitably bullish signal since Dec. 3, 2012) and the S&P 500.
Even the data for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which is currently on a bearish signal, is looking more bullish lately. My signal for U.S. financials will go to cash or bullish in a week's time.
Good luck in the coming week, and Happy Father's Day for dad readers out there!
That's based on the latest weekly data in the Commitments of Traders reports, which detail trillions of dollars in futures and options positions in 200-plus markets.
I use the free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to get trading signals in 10 markets. See my latest signals table for more details on current positioning.
Other data shows traders in equities putting on positions that I interpret to be more bullish during the ongoing selloff, as you can see from the data for the Nikkei (which has been on a profitably bullish signal since Dec. 3, 2012) and the S&P 500.
Even the data for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which is currently on a bearish signal, is looking more bullish lately. My signal for U.S. financials will go to cash or bullish in a week's time.
Good luck in the coming week, and Happy Father's Day for dad readers out there!
Sunday, 9 June 2013
Crude Oil From Bullish to Cash
My three-week-old long signal for crude oil comes to an end on the coming week's open of trading.
That's based on the latest trader positioning in crude oil futures and options as revealed by the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
I've updated my latest signals table with the latest positioning in crude oil and the other nine markets I'm trading using this free data.
My other signals remain the same:
- bullish for the S&P 500 and the Nikkei
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nasdaq-100 index
- bullish on gold and silver
- bearish for copper and natural gas
- bearish on the 30-year Treasury bond
Yes, kind of a mixed bag! But that's the way the COT cookie crumbles much of the time. The data is usually fairly contradictory, which is why most people don't have much of an idea of what to do with it.
Good luck this week!
That's based on the latest trader positioning in crude oil futures and options as revealed by the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
I've updated my latest signals table with the latest positioning in crude oil and the other nine markets I'm trading using this free data.
My other signals remain the same:
- bullish for the S&P 500 and the Nikkei
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nasdaq-100 index
- bullish on gold and silver
- bearish for copper and natural gas
- bearish on the 30-year Treasury bond
Yes, kind of a mixed bag! But that's the way the COT cookie crumbles much of the time. The data is usually fairly contradictory, which is why most people don't have much of an idea of what to do with it.
Good luck this week!
Sunday, 2 June 2013
Banks Could Take a Hit, Trader Data Says
I'm going short U.S. financials on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.
My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has turned bearish based on the trader positioning in the latest weekly COT report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other markets I'm trading using this great free data, which reveals trillions of dollars of positioning in over 200 markets.
My other signals remain the same for the coming week. Good luck this week!
Saturday, 25 May 2013
Down on Copper
Bearish news for copper. The "smart money" commercial hedgers have gotten significantly bearish on copper in their net futures and options positioning as compared to recent data, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report.
That's helped push my copper trading signal into the bearish column. The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.
See my latest signals table for more details on the copper positioning and how traders are positioned in the nine other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Good luck next week.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)