Natural Gas, Bond Bearish

Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for natural gas and the 30-year Treasury bond
- cash for silver and crude oil

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and a special message to Ukrainian readers:

Deepest sympathies to those who lost loved ones in the revolution of the past few days in Ukraine.

Their sacrifice is an example to the world of the power of the people in fighting oppression and corruption. Bічнaя пам'ять.

Bullish Equities Move Solidifies in CFTC's Latest COT Report

The bullish move in trader positioning in equities seems to be solidifying a little, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Signals taking effect on this week's open of trading:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for the Nikkei
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond

My signal for the S&P 500 went from bearish to bullish last week. Net "smart money" commercial hedger positioning in S&P 500 futures and options remains at extremes of optimism in Friday's COT update.

The Nasdaq-100 was already bullish.

See my latest signals table for trader positioning data in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Nikkei move in the other direction is odd, but no one can say the COT data makes complete sense and doesn't leave you guessing.

Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Smart Money Boosts Bullish Positioning

Bullish positioning has gotten even stronger among "smart money" commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report puts the commercial net position as a portion of total open interest at 2.58 standard deviations above the average of recent data, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes bullish on next week's open of trading based on the recent data. The signals aren't always right, but the recent move could mean the correction in equities has a good chance of being over.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest positioning in the 10 markets I trade based on the free weekly COT reports.

Note that I've never found a significant correlation between week-to-week changes in COT positioning and S&P 500 prices. But the extent of the bullish net positioning could mean a longer-lasting up-move is coming, rather than a shorter-term rebound in a bearish downturn.

Other signals taking effect on next week's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and bullish for silver. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond turns bullish in a week's time on the open the week of Feb. 17.

Good luck this week, and Happy Valentine's Day

Sharp Bullish Move in S&P 500 Commercial Posture

Silver turns bearish on the coming week's open of trading, while the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash.

This, according to my trading signals based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Recent COT data has also moved my currently bearish signal for the S&P 500 to bullish, with the signal taking effect in a week's time on the open of trading on Feb. 10 (i.e. the signal remains bearish one more week due to the trade delay I use for that setup.)

That's due to highly bullish positioning by the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options. In fact, the commercials are more relatively bullish than any time since last summer in their net positioning as a percentage of the total open interest.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. Good luck this week.

Gas to Cash, Crude Bearish

Two signals take effect on this coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders report:

- cash for natural gas
- bearish for crude oil

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the CFTC. Good luck this week.

Natural Gas Bearish for One Week Only

A few new signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for natural gas (this signal to last just one week)
- bullish for gold and the 30-year Treasury bond
- cash for copper

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.

Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Bearish, While Banks Aren't

Three new signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for the S&P 500
- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- cash for silver

The S&P 500 and BKX signals are obviously contradictory, but that often happens with the COT data. Not all of the signals are correct. Or both signals could be profitable within their own time frame.

In any case, be sure to check my latest signals table for more details on the new COT data, which details how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in over 200 markets worldwide.

Good luck this week!

Storms Brings Flurry of New COT Signals

Welcome to COTs Timer's first post in 2014. Lots of new signals to report taking effect on this week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for the details and trader positioning in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The new signals:

- Cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, natural gas and gold.
- Bearish for silver.

Sorry for my delayed post this week. There was last week's holiday delay for the data - plus we missed our connection thanks to storm flight chaos in New York last night.

Somehow, we managed to get out - with our luggage no less! - in between two storms and are now relaxing in Florida. It was a true Christmas (by the old calendar) miracle!

I hope the storms and cold didn't disrupt your weekend too badly either. Good luck this week.

Holiday Delay for COT Report

Happy New Year! The latest Commitments of Traders report will be delayed until Monday because of the New Year holiday.

See you back here Monday or Tuesday with a new COT update.

Dramatic Bearish Turn in S&P 500 Data

When will this melt-up in equities end?

Maybe soon. Or at least, it could be in for a hiccup.

At least, that's what the latest Commitments of Traders data seems to be saying.

Last week's data on trader positioning in the S&P 500 has pushed my signal from bullish (which it's been since Sept. 9) to bearish in two weeks' time. The signal has a two-week trade delay, so it takes effect only on the open of trading the week of January 13, 2014.

In fact, the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options are extraordinarily bearish. Their net position as a percentage of the total open interest hit 2.07 standard deviations below the moving average I'm using for that setup.

Natural Gas Signals Flip-flop

The COT data move coincides with a massive negative divergence on the weekly and monthly S&P 500 charts between the rising index and the Tick Index, a good indicator of market sentiment.

In other news, as noted last week, my natural gas setup went from bearish to bullish on this week's open, while my 30-year Treasury bond signal went to cash.

The natural gas signal lasts just one week, then goes to cash on the open the week of January 6.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning and signals in the 10 markets I trade using the COT data issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and Happy Holidays.

Also, best wishes for the New Year to you and your family for those of you using the new calendar. (Us Ukies know New Year's Day is actually Jan. 14!)

Holiday Delay

Last week's Commitments of Traders report is delayed due to Christmas until Monday. Hope you're having a good holiday!

See you back here after Monday's COT release.

Christmas Week Signals: Banks to Bearish, Crude to Cash

New weekly trader data has given me two new signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading and two other signals taking effect in a week's time:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: This signal goes to bearish on Monday's open of trading.
- Crude oil: Crude goes to cash on Monday's open.

As well, in a week's time, my signal for natural gas goes bullish, while my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash (i.e. on the open the week of Dec. 30).

See my latest signals table for more details on Friday's Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and holiday best wishes to all!

Seachange in Latest COT Data

Lots of change in the latest Commitments of Traders data.

After a brief lull of indecision that put most of my signals into cash, Friday's COT report from the CFTC has riled up most of my setups and put them back into positions.

You have to see my latest signals table to appreciate the remarkable upheaval.

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bullish for the Nasdaq-100 and silver
- bearish for natural gas, copper, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury

Bullish On Balance?

On balance, this dramatic trader realignment seems to be a progression of the slightly more positive news I reported in last week's post.

Banks had previously been bearish, while the Nasdaq-100 now becomes bullish. A bearish signal for the bond would also tend to be bullish for equities.

The commodities are a real grab-bag, but you have to discount the bearish natural gas signal. Natural gas isn't correlated at all with equities.

Of those remaining, copper and crude going bearish may be a continuation of the ongoing decline in commodity prices. That may be longer-term bearish for equities, but for the shorter term it's probably not relevant.

Silver is now joining gold in the bullish column, which may be more of a portent for the U.S. dollar than equities. And in fact, a decline in the greenback tends to be bullish for equities.

All in all, it's just a bunch of speculation! And next week's COT data could erase everything I've just said, as so often happens.

Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Smart Money Pulls Back From Bearish Posturing

Not much to report after the latest Commitments of Traders report Friday.

All my signals remain the same as last week, as you can see on my latest signals table.

The "smart money" commercial hedgers in the S&P 500 have pulled back a little from their recently fairly bearish posturing. 

They didn't get bearish enough to affect my bullish signal, though they got close in mid-November, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

As well, my natural gas signal will go from cash to bearish in a week's time on the open of trading the week of Dec. 16. 

We woke up to a nice dusting of snow here in Quebec's Eastern Townships, and there's more coming down. Hope your holiday season is going happily too.

Good luck this week!

Four Markets Go to Cash After Latest COT Data

The holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders data is in, and I've just updated my latest signals table with the results.

The weekly COT data has given me a bunch of new cash signals taking effect on this week's open of trading. The following markets go to cash: natural gas (though that's a signal we knew about last week; see my previous weekly update); silver, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond.

All other signals remain the same:

- bullish for the S&P 500 and gold
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a basket of U.S. financials)
- cash for the Nasdaq-100, Nikkei and copper

Thanks for your patience with the latest delayed COT update. Good luck this week!