Friday, 7 September 2007

COTs Loooove the NASDAQ

Might be strange to announce this on a day when the VIX is up 11 percent and NASDAQ's VXN volatility index has rocketed more than 10 percent, but hey, I'm perverse that way: Today's Commitments of Traders report has flipped to bullish for the NASDAQ Composite Index.

This is according to my trading system based solely on this valuable government data issued weekly for free by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which lists futures and options holdings worth trillions in 100-odd markets from gold to gasoline and everything in between, including the NASDAQ-100 index, upon which my setup for the NASDAQ Composite is built.

As well, my COTs U.S. Composite Equity Indicator remains at a super-bullish 0.66, down slightly from last week's 0.78, but still good enough for a fifth consecutive bullish signal.

See more details and other signals from the latest COTs report by clicking the "Latest Signals" link in the Navigation bar. Be sure to take a look at the full results for my NASDAQ setup (for example, this setup's trade delay is zero, which means to be executed for the open Monday, Sept. 10). The table also shows my risk factors such as the largest past drawdown, wins/losses and confidence levels for this setup. (You'll notice this setup's confidence intervals are somewhat inferior to some of my other setups.)

Also click the table's "Notes" link to see some important explanations and the "How It Works" link in the Navigation bar if you're not sure how all this works or what I'm going on about here.

I'll be back here early next week with some other highlights from this afternoon's COTs. Meanwhile, you can check my COTs-inspired take on the energy markets at, where I've started to contribute a regular column in addition to my weekly scribblings at

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