Tuesday, 4 September 2007

Will Gold Break Out?

What does the latest Commitments of Traders report have to say about the turbulent precious metals markets and the woe-begotten U.S. dollar? Check my story at bullion dealers Kitco.com, titled "Will Gold Break Out?", to see.


Anonymous said...

I find the COT data to be very insightful on the gold market. Your analysis seems quite different with someone else's (basic) analysis of the same.
See - http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Pubished%20Articles/assets/COMEX%20GOLD%20OPTION%20OI.pdf

In particular, that you don't see any change in the COT numbers, but the other author does.

Alex Roslin said...

Thanks for your message. I wouldn't necessarily agree with this author's comment that option players are "highly sophisticated," but overall it's an interesting analysis. I guess the difference is I'm looking for the specific points that, in the past, have signaled the best-probability trading opportunities.

I wasn't happy only to visually observe those points on a chart; I wanted to test them to see if they were actually tradable with any level of confidence.

In any event, like this author, my system is in fact already long gold and gold stocks. The minor fluctuations in the latest report didn't change those signals.