Friday, 18 January 2008

Market Troubles Not Over, Say COTs

Holy Moses! That was fun. Are you ready for more of the same? Today's Commitments of Traders report suggests the woes for equity markets aren't over yet. My COTs U.S. Composite Equity Index is giving its fifth straight bearish signal, after flipping to the bearish column with the Dec. 18 COTs report. The index has increased ever so slightly to -1 from last week's horrible -1.23. But that's little consolation. A -1 reading or worse means all four equity trading setups that make up this index just gave a bearish signal, on average, for execution on next week's open of trading.

(For you newbies, the COTs reports are issued weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and they detail futures and options holdings in 100-odd markets like gold and the S&P 500 index. I've developed a way to trade off this data when it hits bullish and bearish extremes.)

See my other latest new and renewed signals on my Latest Signals page. I'll be back here early next week with more thoughts on today's data. Hope you survived this week and have a great weekend.

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