COTs Timer: New Crude Oil Setup: Still Bullish

Monday, 21 January 2008

New Crude Oil Setup: Still Bullish

Markets getting the crap kicked out of them today in Toronto and Europe. Wow. Just checking in to report I've further refined my crude oil trading setup based on the Commitments of Traders reports. The new setup fades the "dumb money" large speculators when their net futures and options position hits specific extremes of bullishness and bearishness as a percentage of the total open interest, as reported weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The latest COTs report from Friday shows the large specs - these are the big investment firms and hedge funds - slightly reducing their net long futures and options position. They've now got a fairly strong bearish bias in comparison with their recent trading positions. The setup has been bullish since the Sept. 25 COTs report. See the details of this setup on my Latest Signals page. Thanks again to Dave for testing a few million setups to help us narrow down the best ones!

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About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.