Sunday, 17 August 2008

New Signals for Crude (Bullish), Russell 2000 (Bearish) and Natural Gas (Cash)

Some interesting new signals for my trading setups based on the latest data Friday in the Commitments of Traders report. My setups have gone to cash for natural gas, bullish for crude oil and bearish for the Russell 2000. I can take all these signals according to my "highly correlated markets" risk-control rule. That rule says that I take a signal only if other highly correlated markets are leaning in the same direction. In the case of crude, four of the five commodities markets that are highly correlated to crude are now bullish. As for the Russell 2000, the Dow is bearish, while the BKX Bank Index is bullish, so with two of those three markets leaning bullish I will take the new Russell signal.

See my latest signals page table (click the link here) for all the details, and tune in early this week for a more detailed report on the latest data. Sorry for this truncated report. I was away for a few days and just checked in briefly into my office Sunday to update my spreadsheets and post this note. Have a good rest of your Sunday and good luck to us all this coming week!


Anonymous said...

Hi Alex,
Thanks for keeping our request & posting for us Monday morning in Asia.
As for your new signals, now 5 corelated commodities are bullish .How do we play Gold now as this is the only commodity that is turning bearish on 25 Aug from highly corelated commodities

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Anonymous,

It depends on how the six commodities line up at that point. If you look at the pending signals, it is certainly possible that a majority of the six will be bearish as of next week's open. If they are, I will take the gold bearish signal. If not, I'll ignore it.


Anonymous said...

Thanks Alex,
Well appreciated.I am in Thailand & actually here we get an opportunity to trade in physical Gold & Silver only .Your views are closely watched & followed.Thanks a lot for the excellent work