Saturday, 23 June 2012

Cash Signals Point to Trader Uncertainty

The market's uncertainty is clear in the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

Trader positioning in Friday's COT report puts three of my signals into cash on next week's open of trading: the Nasdaq-100 and crude oil (both of which had been bullish) and the 30-year Treasury bond (which had been bearish).

Meanwhile, my S&P 500, BKX U.S. Bank Index, gold and silver setups remain bullish for now.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I follow using the free weekly COT reports.

Have a good weekend, and to Quebec readers: Joyeuse St-Jean!


jeff said...

I believe Nasdaq and Oil turned out to be losing trades. And many of the other trades are under water. No system is perfect always but do the "macro" issues in Europe trump the COTS?

Admin said...

Inflation will eventually catch up! I think, SO GOLD is so undervalued at this point REALLY! central banks are manipulating the world!

Alex Roslin said...

Thanks for your comments. Yes, many of the trades don't make money. Please read my FAQs page for more of my thoughts on losing signals.

As for macro issues, the backtesting period (1995-2011) included lots of various kinds of macro issues, so presumably those are taken into account in the signals.

The macro issues today wouldn't be any different from some of the ones in the backtesting period.