COTs Timer: Cash Signals Point to Trader Uncertainty

Saturday, 23 June 2012

Cash Signals Point to Trader Uncertainty

The market's uncertainty is clear in the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

Trader positioning in Friday's COT report puts three of my signals into cash on next week's open of trading: the Nasdaq-100 and crude oil (both of which had been bullish) and the 30-year Treasury bond (which had been bearish).

Meanwhile, my S&P 500, BKX U.S. Bank Index, gold and silver setups remain bullish for now.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I follow using the free weekly COT reports.

Have a good weekend, and to Quebec readers: Joyeuse St-Jean!

3 comments:

jeff said...: I believe Nasdaq and Oil turned out to be losing trades. And many of the other trades are under water. No system is perfect always but do the "macro" issues in Europe trump the COTS?; 23 June 2012 at 21:25
Admin said...: Inflation will eventually catch up! I think, SO GOLD is so undervalued at this point REALLY! central banks are manipulating the world!; 25 June 2012 at 20:20
Alex Roslin said...: Thanks for your comments. Yes, many of the trades don't make money. Please read my FAQs page for more of my thoughts on losing signals.

As for macro issues, the backtesting period (1995-2011) included lots of various kinds of macro issues, so presumably those are taken into account in the signals.

The macro issues today wouldn't be any different from some of the ones in the backtesting period.

Regards,
Alex; 27 June 2012 at 13:51

Post a Comment

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.