COTs Timer

Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.

Monday, 3 March 2008

Filled! Long Banks

Just updated my portfolio to reflect sale of my SKF UltraShort Financials fund and going long UYG Ultra Financials a few minutes after the open this morning. (Got caught up in answering readers' comments, and I forgot to enter the trade right on the open.) The trade was based on my BKX Bank Index setup flipping back to long a week ago Friday. That setup is based on trading off the 3-month Eurodollars futures and options positioning, as reported weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. See my Latest Signals page for the full list of setups based on this fascinating government data.

4 comments:

Unknown said...: Hi Alex
I am in complete agreement with you on silver (I also shorted it in the last 2 weeks), but as a co-player in SKF and some puts on some carefully picked banks and brokerages, I am very interested to hear you are now bearish on US banks! I will stay tuned.
These are exciting times!

cheers, Joe; 5 March 2008 at 06:50
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Joe,

Thanks for your comment. Yes, they sure are exciting times. Btw, I was short last week, but this week my signal called for a bullish position and I'm long as of Monday.

Regards,
Alex; 5 March 2008 at 09:09
proscllc said...: I don't understand why you would go long UYG when the DJI is still giving a bearish signal. Wouldn't that cancel out the long UYG idea?; 6 March 2008 at 11:13
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Proscllc,

My UYG Ultra Financials trade is based on the signal for the BKX Bank Index, which is derived from the 3-month Eurodollars. Thd DJIA signal is based on the DJIA data.

Regards,
Alex; 6 March 2008 at 11:20

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.