COTs Timer

Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.

Monday, 24 March 2008

Filled!

I guess I must have had too relaxing a holiday weekend because I didn't realize until this afternoon that the markets were open today despite Easter. What would Jesus say?! So I had a busy little period this afternoon checking the markets and timing some trades to reflect a veritable avalanche of new signals, including bearish for the Russell 2000, gold and copper and cash for the NASDAQ 100. Ah, the memories of day-trading! Among other things, I was interested to look for breakouts from this morning's opening range based on the 15-minute charts. Lots of action today! I've just updated my portfolio page with my new positioning. In the end, I decided to dump my XGD Canadian iShares Gold Fund, even though my trading setup for that remains in bullish mode, and pick up some leveraged HBD Horizons BetaPro Gold Bullion Bear Plus trading in Toronto. The reason: my gold setup is a little more robust than my XGD/HUI Gold Bugs Index setup, most likely because the former is more directly tied to the Commitments of Traders data that underlies both setups. (There is no COTs data for XGD or HUI, so I used the gold COTs data to find my XGD/HUI setup.) Good luck this week!

6 comments:

... by Lothar Evers. said...: Hi

what ETF did you choose to trade the "Copper" signal?

Thanks for your great work!
lothar; 24 March 2008 at 18:49
Alex Roslin said...: Thanks Lothar. I used Horizons BetaPro Global Mining Bear Plus, trading in Toronto (HMD).

Regards,
Alex; 24 March 2008 at 20:14
Alain said...: Hello Alex:

I've been reading your blog for a while but stayed on the side. I disagreed with your bearish silver signal a few weeks back, but man I'm glad I was mostly in cash.

Are you using Proshare Financials (UYG) for your long US banks signal? Man getting long on banks these days sends shivers down my spine :o)

BTW: I'm from Trois-Rivieres, not too far away from you.

Thanks for your excellent work.

Alain; 25 March 2008 at 15:14
Alex Roslin said...: Salut Alain! J'espère que vous aimer toute cette neige!

Yes I used UYG for the banks signal. It's quite short term with an average trade lasting three weeks for that setup, so I don't believe it's anything more than a signal for a quick trade. Working nicely so far!

A la prochaine fois!
Alex; 25 March 2008 at 15:49
Anonymous said...: Hi Alex,

I think your site is great and I enjoy the fact the that many people disagree with you. Your site has been great for me since I have been trading HGD.to since the beginning of this year, (in/after morning run and out/afternoon profit taking has been working ). I was glad to be in yesterday, but it did emboldened me to stay in through the disaster this morning, even as things got worse all day. Between Seekingalpha.com , kitco.com and your site I have manged get a idea for why gold stocks were breaking down. Today it was the USD breaking down and I must admit I was an ugly surprised how much. I may have to use the HFD.to if the Banks aren't going to seen in recovery anymore. Also to let your readers know that many of the horizon ETFs can be double the pain/gain (many are very low volume as well). Cheers, Brian in Montreal.; 25 March 2008 at 19:38
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Brian,

Thanks for your kind words! Yes, some of the HB funds and other new funds out there do have low liquidity. Don Vialoux of DVTechTalk.com recommends at least 50,000 average daily volume (three months) to have adequate fills, although this would depend a little on how short- or long-term you're trading.

Regards,
Alex; 25 March 2008 at 21:00

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.