Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.
Monday, 16 June 2008
Filled! Long Silver, Short Natgas, Financials, RUT, Sold NDX
Just updated my portfolio page with trades based on my latest signals. See Friday's post below for all the details. Good luck this week!
Great call on shorting the Financials and Russell 2000! Was the signal that clear? I noticed you didn't short any Nat Gas...just went to cash; don't you think it's still highly correlated with Oil?
Oops - I just neglected to include that nat gas short position on my portfolio page (7% of total assets). I will correct that right now. Natural gas isn't highly correlated with any other market.
While the financials and Russell call was accurate this week, it was WAY off last week (and the week prior). Both were in timed to perfect opposition to market movements.
I'm happy to see the signal work this time, though ;-)
Even if the signals were right this week (so far) and any previous signals were wrong, that's pretty much irrelevant to my mind. Just take a look at the wins/losses column on my Latest Signals table to note that all the setups have some past losses, and I expect they'll have losses in the future. That's the same in all trading, whether mechanical or discretionary.
It doesn't interest me very much if one particular trade works or doesn't. What interests me is if the setup is good or not. Emotions will kill you in trading, and I like this approach because the emotions are taken right out. But hey, that's just me.
I learned a long time ago I need a trading system that works over the long run and that I can trust, and then to stick to it.
5 comments:
This time, your buy signal on silver is so accurate that you are right on the money. Today silver has up for 3.25%. Congratulation!
Alex,
Great call on shorting the Financials and Russell 2000! Was the signal that clear? I noticed you didn't short any Nat Gas...just went to cash; don't you think it's still highly correlated with Oil?
Thanks,
Pete.
Hi Pete,
Oops - I just neglected to include that nat gas short position on my portfolio page (7% of total assets). I will correct that right now. Natural gas isn't highly correlated with any other market.
Regards,
Alex
While the financials and Russell call was accurate this week, it was WAY off last week (and the week prior). Both were in timed to perfect opposition to market movements.
I'm happy to see the signal work this time, though ;-)
Hi Nonsumdignus,
Even if the signals were right this week (so far) and any previous signals were wrong, that's pretty much irrelevant to my mind. Just take a look at the wins/losses column on my Latest Signals table to note that all the setups have some past losses, and I expect they'll have losses in the future. That's the same in all trading, whether mechanical or discretionary.
It doesn't interest me very much if one particular trade works or doesn't. What interests me is if the setup is good or not. Emotions will kill you in trading, and I like this approach because the emotions are taken right out. But hey, that's just me.
I learned a long time ago I need a trading system that works over the long run and that I can trust, and then to stick to it.
Regards,
Alex
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