COTs Timer

Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.

Friday, 29 May 2009

Banks Get Boost in Latest Data Report; Crude and Gold Too

Well, so much for resolving things. Equities this week generally remained flat; at least those in the U.S. market did. Meanwhile, what to make of the explosion in commodities, emerging markets and Treasury yields? The reflation trade is starting to kick in, but how far can things go with the anemic action in U.S. financials and real estate?

There's some good news from today's Commitments of Traders data. See my newly revised latest signals table for a breakdown of this data in key markets and which way my trading setups are leaning right now.

My setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index remains bullish for a second week next week. Also, my gold setup turns bullish again after a week in cash. And crude oil remains bullish, while my S&P 500 setup goes to cash.

I'll be back here early next week with a more detailed look at the data. In the interim, I invite you to check out the numbers on the latest signals table, which tell an interesting story themselves. Also early next, check in to see my latest portfolio numbers. Have a great weekend.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, Nikkei, crude oil, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

5 comments:

In Debt We Trust said...: What is your opinion of the way USDJPY has been jumping all over the place?; 29 May 2009 at 17:10
Alex Roslin said...: Hi In Debt...,

Yeah, it's weird. I've been watching it, but can't make heads or tails of it. I don't know where to get in for a trade, whether long or short, and don't have a COT setup for it yet, either, unfortunately. On my to-do list. Sorry.

Regards,
Alex; 29 May 2009 at 17:31
In Debt We Trust said...: Thanks Alex. I am not sure how much stock to put in the report considering the last 10 minutes of Friday's close.

Here is a better explanation:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
archives/1072-What-Was-THAT-Friday-
Market-Close.html; 30 May 2009 at 17:50
In Debt We Trust said...: I would like your permission to add to my blog roll. Is that ok?; 1 June 2009 at 17:25
Alex Roslin said...: Hi In Debt...,

Sure - go ahead.

Thanks,
Alex; 2 June 2009 at 09:17

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.