Cashing Out

Oh-oh. Just when talk of the "fall fall" has quieted down amid this nice little rally, the Commitments of Traders numbers are lining up to signal trouble. My trading setup for the S&P 500 was already going to cash on Monday's open after two and a half months of being bullish. It then goes outright bearish on the open of trading the week of Oct. 4. Also Monday, my bullish signal for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index is ending; that setup also goes to cash.

See my newly updated latest signals table for all the details on these and the other markets I trade based on the COT data issued weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. My Nikkei setup went bearish last week. My crude oil setup has been bearish since Aug. 30. The only markets I'm bullish on right now from a COT viewpoint are gold (since Aug. 30) and natural gas (since Aug. 23). Correction to my post last week: My 30-year Treasury setup remains in cash next week and goes to bullish the week following - i.e. on the open of Sept. 27.

Hope you have a good weekend, and please tune back in early next week for an update to my portfolio page.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil, Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing