One new signal for execution on the coming week's open: My trading setup for gold goes from cash to bullish. This signal will last at most three weeks. It's based on excessively negative trader positioning in gold futures and options by large speculators, whom my COTs Timer trading system fades.
See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on this setup and my others based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A few other highlights:
- Financials: My setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index remains bearish for a second week. This is based on highly bearish trader positioning in three-month Eurodollar futures and options.
- Crude oil: My crude signal remains bullish but will go to cash in a week's time.
To Canadian readers, hope you enjoyed a good Canada Day. To American readers, have a great 4th of July. And good luck to all this week!
TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing
3 comments:
WHY DONT YOU POST YOUR UPDATED PORTFOLIO ANY MORE. DO THESE SIGNALS NOT AGREE WITH THE MARKET TODAY. ARE YOUR LOSSES GREATER THAN THE GAINS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INPUT. TONY
How do you decide to move cash when the signal is bullish (i.e for oil)?
Hi Jeff and Tony,
The crude oil signal is moving to cash on July 11, so the signal remained bullish this week.
I haven't updated my portfolio page regularly purely out of being busy these past few months, including being away for a couple of months on an extended vacation in Mexico. The system is up 2.5 percent YTD. The signals sometimes don't agree with the market, and sometimes they do. See my FAQs page for more details on my feelings about losing trades.
Regards,
Alex
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