Saturday, 29 March 2014

Smart Money Traders Go Bearish on S&P 500

"Smart money" commercial hedgers have thrown in the towel on the S&P 500 rally since the New Year, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The commercial net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest dropped to 1.34 standard deviations below my moving average based on the latest COT data.

That was enough to change my S&P 500 signal from bullish, which it's been since Feb. 10, to bearish. The signal will take effect in two weeks' time on the open of trading the week of April 14.

Gold to Cash

As noted last week, S&P 500 commercial trader positioning had climbed 10 straight weeks starting in December, but started to reverse immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine's Crimea.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.

In other COT data, gold goes to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

Good luck next week.

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