"Smart money" commercial hedgers are betting big on the equities rally, if positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is any guide.
The latest Commitments of Traders report shows commercials boosting their net futures and options position to 1.9 standard deviations above the recent average, up from 1.11 standard deviations last week.
My SPX position moves from bearish to bullish on the coming week's open of trading thanks to the bullish commercial trader positioning.
See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trader using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Good luck this week, and Happy Father's Day to my dad and all the other dad readers out there. Hope you had a great day.
Sunday, 15 June 2014
Sunday, 8 June 2014
S&P 500 Sentiment Keeps Looking Up, While Banks, Crude and Copper Cash Out: COT Reports
Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading thanks to the latest Commitments of Traders data.
It's cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and copper based on my reading of the COT reports issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Meanwhile, "smart money" commercial hedger sentiment in S&P 500 futures and options continues to improve, as you can see on my latest signals table.
My SPX signal goes from bearish to bullish on next week's open of trading (i.e. the week of June 16).
Good luck this week.
It's cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and copper based on my reading of the COT reports issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Meanwhile, "smart money" commercial hedger sentiment in S&P 500 futures and options continues to improve, as you can see on my latest signals table.
My SPX signal goes from bearish to bullish on next week's open of trading (i.e. the week of June 16).
Good luck this week.
Sunday, 1 June 2014
S&P 500 Traders Love the Rally; Natural Gas Goes Bearish: CFTC's COT Report
"Smart money" commercial hedgers are giving the all-clear sign for an equities rally, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options continued a seven-week build-up in their net position as a portion of total open interest.
Their positioning has flipped my signal from bearish, which it has been since April 14, to bullish, with a trade delay of two weeks. That means the signal takes effect the open of trading the week of June 16.
See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the S&P 500 and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports.
My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark of U.S. financials, also goes bullish, but this one with no trade delay -- i.e. taking effect on this week's open of trading.
As well, natural gas goes from cash to bearish on this week's open, while crude oil goes bullish.
Good luck this week.
Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options continued a seven-week build-up in their net position as a portion of total open interest.
Their positioning has flipped my signal from bearish, which it has been since April 14, to bullish, with a trade delay of two weeks. That means the signal takes effect the open of trading the week of June 16.
See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the S&P 500 and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports.
My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark of U.S. financials, also goes bullish, but this one with no trade delay -- i.e. taking effect on this week's open of trading.
As well, natural gas goes from cash to bearish on this week's open, while crude oil goes bullish.
Good luck this week.
Monday, 26 May 2014
COTs Timer On the Web
Saturday, 24 May 2014
S&P 500 Commercials Steadily Less Bearish
No new signals this week. Another quiet week in the land of the Commitments of Traders reports.
See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.
The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.
Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.
Good luck this week.
See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.
The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.
Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.
Good luck this week.
Sunday, 18 May 2014
Copper Bearish: COT Data Signal
One signal takes effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bearish for copper.
That's based on commercial hedgers in copper future and options getting significantly bearish in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest, according to Friday's weekly COT update.
Large speculators had already had a bearish posture in their total open interest -- the other component of my copper signal.
See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other nine signals I trade using the COT data. My other existing signals remain the same this week.
Good luck this week.
That's based on commercial hedgers in copper future and options getting significantly bearish in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest, according to Friday's weekly COT update.
Large speculators had already had a bearish posture in their total open interest -- the other component of my copper signal.
See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other nine signals I trade using the COT data. My other existing signals remain the same this week.
Good luck this week.
Sunday, 11 May 2014
Traders Quiet: COT Report
All quiet in the land of COT.
My signals from last week remain the same this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Trader positioning did shift in markets as usual, but not enough to switch any of my signals, as you can see on my newly updated latest signals table.
Good luck this week - and Happy Mother's Day to all you moms out there, including my own. Я тебе люблю.
My signals from last week remain the same this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Trader positioning did shift in markets as usual, but not enough to switch any of my signals, as you can see on my newly updated latest signals table.
Good luck this week - and Happy Mother's Day to all you moms out there, including my own. Я тебе люблю.
Monday, 5 May 2014
Banks, Gold to Cash: COT Signals
Two signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.
My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold both go to cash this week.
See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Good luck this week.
My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold both go to cash this week.
See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Good luck this week.
Sunday, 27 April 2014
Cash for Crude, Natural Gas and Copper
Three setups go to cash on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.
They are natural gas, crude oil and copper.
See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning for these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Good luck this week.
They are natural gas, crude oil and copper.
See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning for these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Good luck this week.
Thursday, 24 April 2014
Bullish This Week for Banks and Silver, Bearish for Crude
Apologies for missing my usual weekly post early this week. Easter festivities got in the way.
I did, however, update my latest signals table with last week's data from the Commitments of Traders report.
Signals that took effect this week: bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and silver, bearish for crude oil. Other signals remained the same.
Tune back in after Friday's COT report for an updated signals table and a (more timely!) post here.
I did, however, update my latest signals table with last week's data from the Commitments of Traders report.
Signals that took effect this week: bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and silver, bearish for crude oil. Other signals remained the same.
Tune back in after Friday's COT report for an updated signals table and a (more timely!) post here.
Sunday, 13 April 2014
S&P 500 Bearish Signal This Week
Trader positioning continued to get more bearish across most equities and commodities, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report released Friday.
"Smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options have steadily reduced their net position as a portion of total open interest for six weeks.
They now stand at 1.39 standard deviations below my moving average.
The decline in their positioning started the week mass protests ousted Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych and Kremlin responded with an armed takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.
My S&P 500 signal goes bearish on the open of trading this coming week.
Also going bearish this week is copper.
My latest signals table now shows a wall of red bearish signals for six of my 10 trading setups based on the free weekly COT reports.
Three signals are in cash, and only the Nasdaq-100 is bullish.
Good luck this week.
"Smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options have steadily reduced their net position as a portion of total open interest for six weeks.
They now stand at 1.39 standard deviations below my moving average.
The decline in their positioning started the week mass protests ousted Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych and Kremlin responded with an armed takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.
My S&P 500 signal goes bearish on the open of trading this coming week.
Also going bearish this week is copper.
My latest signals table now shows a wall of red bearish signals for six of my 10 trading setups based on the free weekly COT reports.
Three signals are in cash, and only the Nasdaq-100 is bullish.
Good luck this week.
Saturday, 5 April 2014
Commercial Hedgers Keep Up Heavily Bearish S&P 500 Stance
Was yesterday's market bloodbath a one-off -- or the start of something more serious?
Could be more of the latter, if trader positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is anything to go by.
As discussed in previous posts, the upward trend of positioning by "smart money" commercial hedgers that started in December is over.
(Why "smart money"? That's because the S&P 500 commercial traders tend to get heavily bullish in their positioning when markets are about to go up and vice versa.)
That uptrend coincided with a nice little rally.
Friday's COT data shows the commercials at 1.32 standard deviations below my moving average in their net position as a percentage of total open interest.
Gold Joins Silver in Bearish Column
The downturn in trader positioning has pushed my S&P 500 signal to bearish on the open of trading the week of April 14.
See my latest signals table for more details.
As usual, though, the news from the COT data is somewhat mixed. My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes bullish for Monday's open of trading. And my signal for the Nasdaq-100 continues to be bullish.
In commodities, my signal for gold goes bearish on Monday's open, too -- joining my already bearish silver signal.
Natural gas also remains bearish.
Good luck this week.
Saturday, 29 March 2014
Smart Money Traders Go Bearish on S&P 500
"Smart money" commercial hedgers have thrown in the towel on the S&P 500 rally since the New Year, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The commercial net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest dropped to 1.34 standard deviations below my moving average based on the latest COT data.
That was enough to change my S&P 500 signal from bullish, which it's been since Feb. 10, to bearish. The signal will take effect in two weeks' time on the open of trading the week of April 14.
Gold to Cash
As noted last week, S&P 500 commercial trader positioning had climbed 10 straight weeks starting in December, but started to reverse immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine's Crimea.
See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.
In other COT data, gold goes to cash on the coming week's open of trading.
Good luck next week.
The commercial net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest dropped to 1.34 standard deviations below my moving average based on the latest COT data.
That was enough to change my S&P 500 signal from bullish, which it's been since Feb. 10, to bearish. The signal will take effect in two weeks' time on the open of trading the week of April 14.
Gold to Cash
As noted last week, S&P 500 commercial trader positioning had climbed 10 straight weeks starting in December, but started to reverse immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine's Crimea.
See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.
In other COT data, gold goes to cash on the coming week's open of trading.
Good luck next week.
Wednesday, 26 March 2014
Got On the Twitter
Just started a separate Twitter feed for COTs Timer.
Be sure to sign up!
Sunday, 23 March 2014
Russia Gloom Stalks Market
Last week's bullish trader positioning -- seemingly on optimism over the West's mild sanctions against Russia -- has given way to oodles of gloom in the latest Commitments of Traders report.
Most startling is the collapse in "smart money" commercial hedger positioning in Nikkei futures and options.
From last week's astonishing 3.87 standard deviations above the moving average, Friday's COT report saw commercial total open interest cleavered to 2.22 standard deviations below the average.
I don't think I've ever seen such a massive reversal in the history of the data. My Nikkei signal remains in cash.
See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trade using the weekly COT data.
Banks, Gas Bearish
A similar, though less drastic move took place in the 3-month Eurodollar, a key international liquidity measure.
The Eurodollar gives me signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index.
My bullish BKX signal last week goes to cash on this week's open of trading due to a sharp decline in the large speculator net futures and options position as a percentage of total open interest.
It's also worth noting what's going on in S&P 500 futures and options. Here, commercial hedgers for the second straight week are reversing their net position as a percentage of the total open interest.
While my signal is still bullish for now, the two-week decline has put an end to 10 straight weeks of increasingly bullish net positioning that started in December.
Reversal Started After Russian Invasion
Notably, the decline in S&P 500 positioning started the Tuesday after Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and organized a widely condemned, fraud-riddled referendum there in an attempt to annex the strategic region.
Meanwhile, gold goes bullish on this week's open -- another sign of market fear.
My signal for silver remains bearish, and the two precious metals rarely diverge.
The explanation could be that traders see value in gold purely as a safe haven, while silver is being seen from the more conventional prism of commodity-positive growth, which traders are now nervous about.
Also noteworthy: Natural gas goes bearish on this week's open.
Good luck this week.
Most startling is the collapse in "smart money" commercial hedger positioning in Nikkei futures and options.
From last week's astonishing 3.87 standard deviations above the moving average, Friday's COT report saw commercial total open interest cleavered to 2.22 standard deviations below the average.
I don't think I've ever seen such a massive reversal in the history of the data. My Nikkei signal remains in cash.
See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trade using the weekly COT data.
Banks, Gas Bearish
A similar, though less drastic move took place in the 3-month Eurodollar, a key international liquidity measure.
The Eurodollar gives me signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index.
My bullish BKX signal last week goes to cash on this week's open of trading due to a sharp decline in the large speculator net futures and options position as a percentage of total open interest.
It's also worth noting what's going on in S&P 500 futures and options. Here, commercial hedgers for the second straight week are reversing their net position as a percentage of the total open interest.
While my signal is still bullish for now, the two-week decline has put an end to 10 straight weeks of increasingly bullish net positioning that started in December.
Reversal Started After Russian Invasion
Notably, the decline in S&P 500 positioning started the Tuesday after Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and organized a widely condemned, fraud-riddled referendum there in an attempt to annex the strategic region.
Meanwhile, gold goes bullish on this week's open -- another sign of market fear.
My signal for silver remains bearish, and the two precious metals rarely diverge.
The explanation could be that traders see value in gold purely as a safe haven, while silver is being seen from the more conventional prism of commodity-positive growth, which traders are now nervous about.
Also noteworthy: Natural gas goes bearish on this week's open.
Good luck this week.
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