Monday, 23 June 2008

Filled! Long NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and Natural Gas

I've just updated my COTs Timer portfolio page with trades from this morning's open of trading based on my setups built around the weekly Commitments of Traders data. I went long the NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and natural gas and sold my short positions in the latter two markets. See Friday's post for more details on these and my other recent signals. Good luck this week.

TAGS: Commitments of Traders, COT, NASDAQ 100, NDX, Russell 2000, natural gas

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

dear Alex,

i would like to ask you, in the spreadsheet you provide, in the winning/losing trade column for the Nasdaq for example it says 74/32 what does this mean ? does it mean that the trading signal proved correct for 74 weeks and wrong for 32 weeks ? is that what it means ?
thanks
Mr. Paris

Alex Roslin said...

Hello, Mr. Paris. Thanks for your question. It means exactly what it says: 74 winning trades, 32 losing trades.

Regards,
Alex

paris said...

i still do not understand. What is the time boundary of a winning or a losing trade ?

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Paris,

I'm not sure I understand your question. The setup stays in the same signal until it gets a new signal. Is that what you're wondering? I recommend reading "How It Works" or the other explanatory links on the right for more details on how this works.

Regards,
Alex

Anonymous said...

Hello Alex,

According to you:
"In the case of the Russell, the signal comes from the fact that the commercial traders, whom I follow in this setup, have started to reduce their extreme net short position in Russell 2000 futures and options."

But in last COT REPORT commercial traders increase net short position. Can you please put here the numbers?

Alex Roslin said...

Hello Anonymous,

All references on this blog are to net position as a percentage of the total open interest, unless otherwise indicated, as I indicate in many places all over the blog.

Regards,
Alex

Anonymous said...

so from 29 April 2008 DJ index was at 12,831 points and cots timer signalled BULLISH tone, that is clearly a losing trade is it not ?
And still keeping this bullish signal ? I do not understand...

Mr. Paris

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Mr. Paris,

Thanks for your question. I'm not sure I understand your confusion. The win/loss column for my setups that you refer to in previous posts clearly indicates that none of my setups has a 100% win rate. I'm afraid you will be searching a long time for the trading system that never has a trade that is ever in the red.

Regards,
Alex

Anonymous said...

Mr. Alex, to understand you better, your signals tell us that from 29 April 2008 with DJ at 12,831 cots signal BULLISH, is that right ? And unless cots signal changes to BEARISH, then this trade for the DJ is still open neither a win nor a loss...correct ? It will be considered a loss only if the signal changes to BEARISH...

In my opinion your signal for the DJ is not wrong...it is premature.

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Anonymous,

Yes, that's correct. The signals work by identifying trader positioning levels that in the past have reliably led to profitable, market-beating trades. No guarantees they will work in future of course, like any market pattern. But I use a variety of statistical tests (outlined on my Latest Signals table) in order to get what I evaluate as the most robust trading setups out of the data.

Regards,
Alex