COTs Timer

Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.

Monday, 23 June 2008

Filled! Long NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and Natural Gas

I've just updated my COTs Timer portfolio page with trades from this morning's open of trading based on my setups built around the weekly Commitments of Traders data. I went long the NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and natural gas and sold my short positions in the latter two markets. See Friday's post for more details on these and my other recent signals. Good luck this week.

TAGS: Commitments of Traders, COT, NASDAQ 100, NDX, Russell 2000, natural gas

10 comments:

Anonymous said...: dear Alex,

i would like to ask you, in the spreadsheet you provide, in the winning/losing trade column for the Nasdaq for example it says 74/32 what does this mean ? does it mean that the trading signal proved correct for 74 weeks and wrong for 32 weeks ? is that what it means ?
thanks
Mr. Paris; 23 June 2008 at 12:26
Alex Roslin said...: Hello, Mr. Paris. Thanks for your question. It means exactly what it says: 74 winning trades, 32 losing trades.

Regards,
Alex; 23 June 2008 at 12:57
Anonymous said...: i still do not understand. What is the time boundary of a winning or a losing trade ?; 25 June 2008 at 10:02
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Paris,

I'm not sure I understand your question. The setup stays in the same signal until it gets a new signal. Is that what you're wondering? I recommend reading "How It Works" or the other explanatory links on the right for more details on how this works.

Regards,
Alex; 25 June 2008 at 10:42
Anonymous said...: Hello Alex,

According to you:
"In the case of the Russell, the signal comes from the fact that the commercial traders, whom I follow in this setup, have started to reduce their extreme net short position in Russell 2000 futures and options."

But in last COT REPORT commercial traders increase net short position. Can you please put here the numbers?; 25 June 2008 at 12:29
Alex Roslin said...: Hello Anonymous,

All references on this blog are to net position as a percentage of the total open interest, unless otherwise indicated, as I indicate in many places all over the blog.

Regards,
Alex; 25 June 2008 at 12:48
Anonymous said...: so from 29 April 2008 DJ index was at 12,831 points and cots timer signalled BULLISH tone, that is clearly a losing trade is it not ?
And still keeping this bullish signal ? I do not understand...

Mr. Paris; 26 June 2008 at 11:05
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Mr. Paris,

Thanks for your question. I'm not sure I understand your confusion. The win/loss column for my setups that you refer to in previous posts clearly indicates that none of my setups has a 100% win rate. I'm afraid you will be searching a long time for the trading system that never has a trade that is ever in the red.

Regards,
Alex; 26 June 2008 at 11:28
Anonymous said...: Mr. Alex, to understand you better, your signals tell us that from 29 April 2008 with DJ at 12,831 cots signal BULLISH, is that right ? And unless cots signal changes to BEARISH, then this trade for the DJ is still open neither a win nor a loss...correct ? It will be considered a loss only if the signal changes to BEARISH...

In my opinion your signal for the DJ is not wrong...it is premature.; 27 June 2008 at 11:53
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Anonymous,

Yes, that's correct. The signals work by identifying trader positioning levels that in the past have reliably led to profitable, market-beating trades. No guarantees they will work in future of course, like any market pattern. But I use a variety of statistical tests (outlined on my Latest Signals table) in order to get what I evaluate as the most robust trading setups out of the data.

Regards,
Alex; 27 June 2008 at 11:57

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.