Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Bullish Move for Gold, Crude Oil in CFTC's COT Data

Two new signals took effect this week based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest weekly Commitments of Traders data dump:

- bullish for crude oil
- bullish for gold

The crude signal will remain bullish just for one week, but gold could last a while. No way to know week to week, but the trader positioning is highly supportive of a bullish gold position this week - at least according to my interpretation of price moves based on historic data.

That doesn't mean the signal will be right - or that gold will move up this week. As you'll see from my backtesting results table (scroll down for the link), all of my setups are far from being 100-percent correct, even in the idealized world of backtesting. It's all about probabilities.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the CFTC's free COT data.

Sorry again for my delayed post this time around. I was visiting beautiful Bocas del Toro in Panama - a gorgeous archipelago of Caribbean islands with friendly people, a funky little town and lots of nice corrals and reefs to swim around. Highly recommended.

Good luck this week.


chma said...

Wow, nice bullish move in gold ;-) Perfect anti timing.

Alex Roslin said...

Thanks for your message, Chima. Yes, some signals don't work, as I'm very clear about on this blog! Please check my FAQs page for more on signals that don't seem to be working.

Best regards,