COTs Timer

Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.

Monday, 28 April 2008

Filled!

Just updated my portfolio page with trades from this morning. I went long a leveraged base-metal miners ETF for my copper trading setup, which has flipped to bullish. I also went to cash with my NASDAQ 100 position based on my setup for that market flipping to neutral.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...: Which leveraged copper based miner ETF do you use?

Thanks!; 29 April 2008 at 03:10
Alex Roslin said...: I bought HMU trading in Toronto.

Regards,
Alex; 29 April 2008 at 09:08
Anonymous said...: I tried to post a few days ago but I think my question may have been too dumb to post. Trying again, I wonder if anyone minds that silver is tanking yet this system is bullish on it. I sold at the signal but bought back in and am losing money hand over fist. Is this just the breaks? Or is the system just off on this one?; 29 April 2008 at 12:19
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Anonymous,

I don't think there are dumb questions! Your message got put up as a comment to my post on Friday, and I added a comment addressing it.

Regards,
Alex; 29 April 2008 at 13:10
willem said...: i was thinking about a question but someone before me have added that.
it was my doubt(but i think it is not) about silver.the buy signal was 4 weeks ago,but i read the answer from alex on the comments.; 29 April 2008 at 14:32
Anonymous said...: FYI- I just noticed your portfolio page is still showing you long nasdaq-100. I enjoy your COT timer blog very much.; 29 April 2008 at 16:00
Alex Roslin said...: Right you are! Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Just corrected it.

Regards,
Alex; 29 April 2008 at 16:41
tanglewood said...: If your COT timer causes you to switch to neutral (cash) on the NASDAQ 100, wouldn't it also apply to the Russell 2000 and the SPX?

Bill; 29 April 2008 at 22:35
willem said...: i sure believe i can learn a lot from your site alex.i think in a cople of days/weeks what you said is yet unfolding.all things are not so well and gold and silver has to go up.
it might be unbelieveble to see what is going to happens

grtz,

willem; 30 April 2008 at 06:56
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Bill,

No, that NDX setup applies only to that index. It's not backtested for any other index. Each one has a different personality and responds to the data differently.

Regards,
Alex; 30 April 2008 at 09:22
Bora Kizilirmak said...: Dear Alex,

Do you have any suggestion how I can use your table for TSX Financial Index and TSX Energy Index?

Thank you

Bora Kizilirmak; 30 April 2008 at 13:38
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Bora,

Some markets can be fairly correlated with the primary market in the COTs data; others not. I've found I needed to study the past correlation carefully to make sure I wasn't trading the signal with an instrument that was inappropriate. For example, TSX Energy often doesn't move quite the same as crude oil. My own preferred method is to use an instrument as close as possible to the primary data, which is why I like the new HBP funds in Toronto for many of the commodities and the ProShares funds for the U.S. banks setup.

Regards,
Alex; 30 April 2008 at 13:53
Peter J Barban said...: Have you seen the website, Collective2 at http://www.collective2.com/? This site allows people to sell, or offer for free, their trading systems. C2 tracks the results and over time can reveal the real value of a system.

You could put your timing system on there, and offer it for free, then at some later time you could begin charging for subscriptions. Unfortunately there is a listing fee to get your system on their site.

Peter J Barban; 1 May 2008 at 00:07
Alex Roslin said...: Hi Peter,

Thank you for the suggestion. I've come across a few websites that offer a tracking service and have wanted to sign myself up, but I was holding off until I've finished my refinements of this system and developed the best possible setups. Those should be good for a trading window of 18 to 36 months before needing a round of updates with new market data.

I see the recent revised setups I've been trading in the past few months as interim setups that will likely change once again in many of the markets based on this refinement process.

Best regards,
Alex; 1 May 2008 at 09:16
Anonymous said...: Is there a list of the proper ETF(or appropiate)
purchase for the various
signals generated by your method ?
Thank you.; 1 May 2008 at 09:27
Alex Roslin said...: Hi - some details are on my "How It Works" page. A good ETFs list is available at Don Vialoux's DVTechTalk.com website, under "special reports."

Regards,
Alex; 1 May 2008 at 09:51

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.