Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.
Tuesday, 26 August 2008
Updates: My Portfolio
Just updated my portfolio page with current trade returns and those for positions closed yesterday. Good luck this week!
12 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Hi Alex,
What do you think about the Nat.Gas move to this year's low yesterday and big bounce upon GS "devious" upgrade today? Do you see a trading range forming?
BTW: What symbol are you using for the copper trade?
Yes, quite a move. Apparently UNG was also mentioned on Fast Money last night. Probably too early to tell if it's a trading range. I'm using JJC for copper.
It looks like Nat.Gas move is also related to the prediction of Hurricane Gustav hitting the Gulf Oil, Gas; as Hurricane Evacuations to begin tomorrow. I think this Friday's COT may signal bullish for Nat.Gas again. Hypothetically, if it does show on your COTS, and the storm fades on Sunday, will you still have a buy position on Monday? The traders who bought NG yesterday will probably hold past this Friday and sell next week if the storm fades...
You could be right! I always follow my signals religiously. You can't second-guess this kind of thing, including because of news events that may or may not be the main factors behind any move. There's always a good news event out there to explain any move.
Hi Alex, I was seeing the COTs data & am a bit confused .Would appreciate if you could help on this: A)Last 3 yrs data that I saw, the large commercials are all along short in huge qty.What is the logic behind it. B)The large commercials substantially reduced their short position from 202,225 on 5th Aug to 122,528 to current week.Is this not a bullish sign Thanks Sunil , Thailand
I was seeing the COTs data for Gold COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS & am a bit confused .Would appreciate if you could help on this: A)Last 3 yrs data that I saw, the large commercials in Gold are all along short in huge qty.What is the logic behind it. B)The large commercials substantially reduced their short position in Gold from 202,225 on 5th Aug to 122,528 to current week.Is this not a bullish sign Thanks Sunil , Thailand
Thanks for your message. My gold trading setup follows the large specs, who have been net long for a few years while the commercials were net short. Why were they so positioned? To me, it doesn't really matter.
What seems to have a relationship with subsequent prices isn't the fact of being net long or short but the relative positioning in comparison to past holdings. There was clearly some kind of long-term shift in strategic positioning in 2001, when gold prices ended their long multi-year base and started to break upward. But the fact of being net long or short is, in my opinion, irrelevant to trading.
In regard to your second question, I have found that week-to-week fluctuations have very little utility for trading. The important question is whether traders have hit extremes in their positioning.
In the past three weeks, large specs have also sharply reduced their net long position (which is in fact a bearish development). But their relative positioning compared to the recent data has actually become more bullish. Yet, it's still not bullish enough to trigger a buy signal. Closer, but not there yet.
The Nat.Gas move back down today is just simply filling its gap? The move up and down is just unbelievable. I guess too much inventory and signs of the hurricane is just a luck of the draw. I can understand why you stick to your COTS signal religiously.
Yeah, pretty ugly. Like I said, natgas is one of the most volatile markets out there. Lots of folks were recently advising it as a buy, but you've got to feel bad for the average Joe types who jumped in on their advice, not knowing that that market is trickier to trade than gold.
Hello, Alex: Since COT data was bullish on silver, its price has been deteriorated a lot. This week commercials sold big amount of contracts of both long and short of Silver, Do you think there should be some change of your bullish attitude on this metal? Your answer will be appreciated. Sincerely GY Zhao
It's quite normal not to have 100% win accuracy in trading. Even top traders typically have a 60% win ratio. So one signal going against me - and the signal is still not finished - does not make me want to re-evaluate the setup. Based on my dataset, the right time for a re-evaluation will most likely be about 18 months after my last update - i.e., in the summer of 2009.
12 comments:
Hi Alex,
What do you think about the Nat.Gas move to this year's low yesterday and big bounce upon GS "devious" upgrade today? Do you see a trading range forming?
BTW: What symbol are you using for the copper trade?
Thx.
Pete
Hi Pete,
Yes, quite a move. Apparently UNG was also mentioned on Fast Money last night. Probably too early to tell if it's a trading range. I'm using JJC for copper.
Regards,
Alex
Hi Alex,
It looks like Nat.Gas move is also related to the prediction of Hurricane Gustav hitting the Gulf Oil, Gas; as Hurricane Evacuations to begin tomorrow. I think this Friday's COT may signal bullish for Nat.Gas again. Hypothetically, if it does show on your COTS, and the storm fades on Sunday, will you still have a buy position on Monday? The traders who bought NG yesterday will probably hold past this Friday and sell next week if the storm fades...
Rgds.
Pete
Hi Pete,
You could be right! I always follow my signals religiously. You can't second-guess this kind of thing, including because of news events that may or may not be the main factors behind any move. There's always a good news event out there to explain any move.
Regards,
Alex
Hi Alex,
I was seeing the COTs data & am a bit confused .Would appreciate if you could help on this:
A)Last 3 yrs data that I saw, the large commercials are all along short in huge qty.What is the logic behind it.
B)The large commercials substantially reduced their short position from 202,225 on 5th Aug to 122,528 to current week.Is this not a bullish sign
Thanks
Sunil , Thailand
Hi Sunil,
Glad to help, but I'm not sure which market you're talking about.
Alex
Sorry Alex,
The modified querry is as under:
I was seeing the COTs data for Gold COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS & am a bit confused .Would appreciate if you could help on this:
A)Last 3 yrs data that I saw, the large commercials in Gold are all along short in huge qty.What is the logic behind it.
B)The large commercials substantially reduced their short position in Gold from 202,225 on 5th Aug to 122,528 to current week.Is this not a bullish sign
Thanks
Sunil , Thailand
Hi Sunil,
Thanks for your message. My gold trading setup follows the large specs, who have been net long for a few years while the commercials were net short. Why were they so positioned? To me, it doesn't really matter.
What seems to have a relationship with subsequent prices isn't the fact of being net long or short but the relative positioning in comparison to past holdings. There was clearly some kind of long-term shift in strategic positioning in 2001, when gold prices ended their long multi-year base and started to break upward. But the fact of being net long or short is, in my opinion, irrelevant to trading.
In regard to your second question, I have found that week-to-week fluctuations have very little utility for trading. The important question is whether traders have hit extremes in their positioning.
In the past three weeks, large specs have also sharply reduced their net long position (which is in fact a bearish development). But their relative positioning compared to the recent data has actually become more bullish. Yet, it's still not bullish enough to trigger a buy signal. Closer, but not there yet.
Regards,
Alex
Hi Alex,
The Nat.Gas move back down today is just simply filling its gap? The move up and down is just unbelievable. I guess too much inventory and signs of the hurricane is just a luck of the draw. I can understand why you stick to your COTS signal religiously.
Rgds.
Pete
Hi Pete,
Yeah, pretty ugly. Like I said, natgas is one of the most volatile markets out there. Lots of folks were recently advising it as a buy, but you've got to feel bad for the average Joe types who jumped in on their advice, not knowing that that market is trickier to trade than gold.
Regards,
Alex
Hello, Alex:
Since COT data was bullish on silver, its price has been deteriorated a lot. This week commercials sold big amount of contracts of both long and short of Silver, Do you think there should be some change of your bullish attitude on this metal?
Your answer will be appreciated.
Sincerely
GY Zhao
Hi Gy,
It's quite normal not to have 100% win accuracy in trading. Even top traders typically have a 60% win ratio. So one signal going against me - and the signal is still not finished - does not make me want to re-evaluate the setup. Based on my dataset, the right time for a re-evaluation will most likely be about 18 months after my last update - i.e., in the summer of 2009.
Regards,
Alex
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