Natural Gas to Cash, Then Bearish Again

Wow - nutty week! It's starting to feel toppy, no? A few new trades take effect on Monday's open from my trading setups based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the CFTC. See my newly updated latest signals table for details.

My natural gas signal goes from bearish to cash. In a week, on the open the week of Feb. 7, it goes back to bearish. That setup is just on fire. I'm going to have to check out the evaluation criteria I used to find it and see how those can help me improve my setups in the other markets when I start updating all my setups this spring.

Also, my 30-year Treasury bond setup goes from bullish to cash.

Hope you have a good weekend. I'm going to be traveling so I'll miss my portfolio update next week. But see you back here after next Friday's COT update.

Bank Bounce

Wow - tough week. But Friday's Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC has some potentially good news for bullish positions. My trading setup based on this data went bullish for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index. That signal is based on trading positions in the three-month Eurodollar, which got briefly much more bullish of late. One caution: the small trader total open interest has fallen substantially in the latest COT report. This pushed their signal into the bearish column. But that signal has a two-week trade delay, so the setup will remain bullish for up to two weeks, then go either to cash... or maybe even bearish. Who knows!

Check out my other signals and the rest of the data on the newly updated latest signals table. (In other news, my natural gas signal remains resolutely bearish for one more week, then goes to cash.) And be sure to look back here early next week for a portfolio update. Good luck next week!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Wow - tough week. But Friday's Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC has some potentially good news for bullish positions. My trading setup based on this data went bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index. That signal is based on trading positions in the three-month Eurodollar, which got briefly much more bullish of late. One caution: the small trader total open interest has fallen substantially in the latest COT report. This pushed their signal into the bearish column. But that signal has a two-week trade delay, so the setup will remain bullish for up to two weeks, then go either to cash... or maybe even bearish. Who knows!

Check out my other signals and the rest of the data on the newly updated latest signals table. (In other news, my natural gas signal remains resolutely bearish for one more week, then goes to cash.) And be sure to look back here early next week for a portfolio update. Good luck next week!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Cashing Out on Crude, Gas Signal From Bullish to Bearish

My trading setup for crude oil goes from bearish to cash on this coming week's open of trading, while my signal for natural gas goes from bullish to bearish on the weekly open. Those signals are based on my setups using the weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Check out the details for those and the other markets I follow on my newly updated latest signals table.

In other markets, data has turned down somewhat for U.S. financials, while the "smart money" commercial hedgers are getting more bullish on the S&P 500, which they were shunning until recent weeks. Also, the wrong-way large speculators have gotten seriously negatory on gold - a potentially bullish sign.

Be sure to check my portfolio page for an update early this coming week. Good luck in the markets and out this week!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Data Bullish for Bullion, Banks

I updated my latest signals table based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data just before the open of trading this morning. Sorry about the delay! I was away from my office last week and over the weekend. Some interesting new developments you'll see on that table:

- S&P 500: The "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally gotten on board with the rally. They've reversed course and gotten somewhat more bullish in their positioning. My trading setup for the S&P 500 was already in cash after being stopped out in early December from its short position. But now the setup will officially go to cash on the open of trading on Jan. 31.

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: This setup was bearish last week and went to cash this week. But all three component signals have suddenly gotten bullish with the latest COT data. Because of the varying trade delays in that setup, the overall signal remains in cash. But I'll be watching closely for a possible discretionary trade in financials.

- Gold: My setup goes from cash to bullish as of today's open of trading.

- Nikkei: This signal goes from bearish to cash today.

- Crude oil: This signal goes from short to cash on next week's open of trading, on Jan. 17.

Good luck this week, and be sure to check my portfolio page, which I've also just updated.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Banks, Nikkei Turn Bearish

Happy New Year! Hope you had a great holiday and that you have a healthy, happy 2011 filled with good fortune. What an interesting slew of new signals to report on my newly updated latest signals table.

Today's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC gives some bearish warnings for the beginning of the year.

My setups for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nikkei both went from cash to bearish for this week's open of trading. (I'll execute those trades for tomorrow's open.) Also, my setup for gold has gone from bullish to cash. My crude oil signal remains bearish for two more weeks, while my setup for the 30-year Treasury bond is still bullish, as is natural gas.

Good luck this week and through the coming year! Be sure also to tune back in tomorrow (hopefully!) for a portfolio update.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing