COTs Timer: Data Bullish for Bullion, Banks

Monday, 10 January 2011

Data Bullish for Bullion, Banks

I updated my latest signals table based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data just before the open of trading this morning. Sorry about the delay! I was away from my office last week and over the weekend. Some interesting new developments you'll see on that table:

- S&P 500: The "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally gotten on board with the rally. They've reversed course and gotten somewhat more bullish in their positioning. My trading setup for the S&P 500 was already in cash after being stopped out in early December from its short position. But now the setup will officially go to cash on the open of trading on Jan. 31.

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: This setup was bearish last week and went to cash this week. But all three component signals have suddenly gotten bullish with the latest COT data. Because of the varying trade delays in that setup, the overall signal remains in cash. But I'll be watching closely for a possible discretionary trade in financials.

- Gold: My setup goes from cash to bullish as of today's open of trading.

- Nikkei: This signal goes from bearish to cash today.

- Crude oil: This signal goes from short to cash on next week's open of trading, on Jan. 17.

Good luck this week, and be sure to check my portfolio page, which I've also just updated.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

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About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.