Wow - tough week. But Friday's Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC has some potentially good news for bullish positions. My trading setup based on this data went bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index. That signal is based on trading positions in the three-month Eurodollar, which got briefly much more bullish of late. One caution: the small trader total open interest has fallen substantially in the latest COT report. This pushed their signal into the bearish column. But that signal has a two-week trade delay, so the setup will remain bullish for up to two weeks, then go either to cash... or maybe even bearish. Who knows!

Check out my other signals and the rest of the data on the newly updated latest signals table. (In other news, my natural gas signal remains resolutely bearish for one more week, then goes to cash.) And be sure to look back here early next week for a portfolio update. Good luck next week!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Cashing Out on Crude, Gas Signal From Bullish to Bearish

My trading setup for crude oil goes from bearish to cash on this coming week's open of trading, while my signal for natural gas goes from bullish to bearish on the weekly open. Those signals are based on my setups using the weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Check out the details for those and the other markets I follow on my newly updated latest signals table.

In other markets, data has turned down somewhat for U.S. financials, while the "smart money" commercial hedgers are getting more bullish on the S&P 500, which they were shunning until recent weeks. Also, the wrong-way large speculators have gotten seriously negatory on gold - a potentially bullish sign.

Be sure to check my portfolio page for an update early this coming week. Good luck in the markets and out this week!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Data Bullish for Bullion, Banks

I updated my latest signals table based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data just before the open of trading this morning. Sorry about the delay! I was away from my office last week and over the weekend. Some interesting new developments you'll see on that table:

- S&P 500: The "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally gotten on board with the rally. They've reversed course and gotten somewhat more bullish in their positioning. My trading setup for the S&P 500 was already in cash after being stopped out in early December from its short position. But now the setup will officially go to cash on the open of trading on Jan. 31.

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: This setup was bearish last week and went to cash this week. But all three component signals have suddenly gotten bullish with the latest COT data. Because of the varying trade delays in that setup, the overall signal remains in cash. But I'll be watching closely for a possible discretionary trade in financials.

- Gold: My setup goes from cash to bullish as of today's open of trading.

- Nikkei: This signal goes from bearish to cash today.

- Crude oil: This signal goes from short to cash on next week's open of trading, on Jan. 17.

Good luck this week, and be sure to check my portfolio page, which I've also just updated.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Banks, Nikkei Turn Bearish

Happy New Year! Hope you had a great holiday and that you have a healthy, happy 2011 filled with good fortune. What an interesting slew of new signals to report on my newly updated latest signals table.

Today's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC gives some bearish warnings for the beginning of the year.

My setups for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nikkei both went from cash to bearish for this week's open of trading. (I'll execute those trades for tomorrow's open.) Also, my setup for gold has gone from bullish to cash. My crude oil signal remains bearish for two more weeks, while my setup for the 30-year Treasury bond is still bullish, as is natural gas.

Good luck this week and through the coming year! Be sure also to tune back in tomorrow (hopefully!) for a portfolio update.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Holiday Delay

Holiday delay today means this week's Commitments of Traders report will be issued Monday afternoon instead of today. Happy New Year!

Bullish Natural Gas

Happy holidays! Welcome to an abbreviated Xmas version of COTs Timer. I've just updated my latest signals table based on today's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders release from the CFTC. No new signals again this week. Taking effect on this week's open of trading were two previously announced signals: bullish for natural gas and cash for the Nikkei Stock Average. Tune back in tomorrow or the day after for a portfolio update, and best wishes in 2011! Now back to my eggnog.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Treasury Bond Signal From Bearish to Bullish

Not much to report this week from the Commitments of Traders data. See my latest signals table for the details. The only new trade to take effect on Monday's open of trading is to sell my bearish position in the 30-year Treasury bond and go long. That one's worked out pretty nicely. So has my bearish position in natural gas, which has one more week to run; that setup then goes bullish on the open of the week of Dec. 27.

Hope you have a great weekend and good luck next week. Tune back in early next week for a portfolio update. Happy Holidays!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Bullish: Gold; Cash: Financials; Bearish: Gas

I've just updated my latest signals table based on this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. U.S. financials go from bearish to cash. Gold goes from cash to bullish. Natural gas goes from cash to bearish. See the table for all the details, and check back in after the weekend for a portfolio update. Have a good weekend!

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Stopped Out of S&P 500 Short Trade

I've been stopped out of my S&P 500 short position. As usual when something like this happens, I'll be looking at the charts to go in the opposite direction because it means an unusually strong trend.

Slew of Red

Woah. What a mess of red showing up this week on my latest signals table! Although I'm quite long in my discretionary trades based on the sweet price action lately, the Commitments of Traders data just hates this market. I've just updated my table based on this afternoon's data from the CFTC. Some highlights:

- U.S. financials: My trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has gone bearish after 11 weeks in cash. This is due to huge declines in the total open interest of the large speculators and small traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract, plus declining net positioning of the large specs. The bearish signal takes effect on Monday's open of trading.

- Nikkei: My Nikkei setup also goes bearish on Monday's open.

- S&P 500: My S&P 500 setup has been bearish since Oct. 4, and the data remains steadfastly negatory despite the recent market action.

- Natural gas: Even natural gas is jumping into the bearish camp. This, even after its collapse over the last few eons. The signal takes effect with a week's trade delay - i.e. on Monday, Dec. 13.

Hope you had a good week and that you have an even better weekend. Tune back in early next week for a portfolio update.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing