Dramatic Bearish Turn in S&P 500 Data

When will this melt-up in equities end?

Maybe soon. Or at least, it could be in for a hiccup.

At least, that's what the latest Commitments of Traders data seems to be saying.

Last week's data on trader positioning in the S&P 500 has pushed my signal from bullish (which it's been since Sept. 9) to bearish in two weeks' time. The signal has a two-week trade delay, so it takes effect only on the open of trading the week of January 13, 2014.

In fact, the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options are extraordinarily bearish. Their net position as a percentage of the total open interest hit 2.07 standard deviations below the moving average I'm using for that setup.

Natural Gas Signals Flip-flop

The COT data move coincides with a massive negative divergence on the weekly and monthly S&P 500 charts between the rising index and the Tick Index, a good indicator of market sentiment.

In other news, as noted last week, my natural gas setup went from bearish to bullish on this week's open, while my 30-year Treasury bond signal went to cash.

The natural gas signal lasts just one week, then goes to cash on the open the week of January 6.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning and signals in the 10 markets I trade using the COT data issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and Happy Holidays.

Also, best wishes for the New Year to you and your family for those of you using the new calendar. (Us Ukies know New Year's Day is actually Jan. 14!)

Holiday Delay

Last week's Commitments of Traders report is delayed due to Christmas until Monday. Hope you're having a good holiday!

See you back here after Monday's COT release.

Christmas Week Signals: Banks to Bearish, Crude to Cash

New weekly trader data has given me two new signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading and two other signals taking effect in a week's time:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: This signal goes to bearish on Monday's open of trading.
- Crude oil: Crude goes to cash on Monday's open.

As well, in a week's time, my signal for natural gas goes bullish, while my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash (i.e. on the open the week of Dec. 30).

See my latest signals table for more details on Friday's Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and holiday best wishes to all!

Seachange in Latest COT Data

Lots of change in the latest Commitments of Traders data.

After a brief lull of indecision that put most of my signals into cash, Friday's COT report from the CFTC has riled up most of my setups and put them back into positions.

You have to see my latest signals table to appreciate the remarkable upheaval.

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bullish for the Nasdaq-100 and silver
- bearish for natural gas, copper, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury

Bullish On Balance?

On balance, this dramatic trader realignment seems to be a progression of the slightly more positive news I reported in last week's post.

Banks had previously been bearish, while the Nasdaq-100 now becomes bullish. A bearish signal for the bond would also tend to be bullish for equities.

The commodities are a real grab-bag, but you have to discount the bearish natural gas signal. Natural gas isn't correlated at all with equities.

Of those remaining, copper and crude going bearish may be a continuation of the ongoing decline in commodity prices. That may be longer-term bearish for equities, but for the shorter term it's probably not relevant.

Silver is now joining gold in the bullish column, which may be more of a portent for the U.S. dollar than equities. And in fact, a decline in the greenback tends to be bullish for equities.

All in all, it's just a bunch of speculation! And next week's COT data could erase everything I've just said, as so often happens.

Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Smart Money Pulls Back From Bearish Posturing

Not much to report after the latest Commitments of Traders report Friday.

All my signals remain the same as last week, as you can see on my latest signals table.

The "smart money" commercial hedgers in the S&P 500 have pulled back a little from their recently fairly bearish posturing. 

They didn't get bearish enough to affect my bullish signal, though they got close in mid-November, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

As well, my natural gas signal will go from cash to bearish in a week's time on the open of trading the week of Dec. 16. 

We woke up to a nice dusting of snow here in Quebec's Eastern Townships, and there's more coming down. Hope your holiday season is going happily too.

Good luck this week!

Four Markets Go to Cash After Latest COT Data

The holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders data is in, and I've just updated my latest signals table with the results.

The weekly COT data has given me a bunch of new cash signals taking effect on this week's open of trading. The following markets go to cash: natural gas (though that's a signal we knew about last week; see my previous weekly update); silver, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond.

All other signals remain the same:

- bullish for the S&P 500 and gold
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a basket of U.S. financials)
- cash for the Nasdaq-100, Nikkei and copper

Thanks for your patience with the latest delayed COT update. Good luck this week!

This Just In: Gobblers Delay Important Data

Holiday delay this week due to Thanksgiving in the U.S.

Us Canadians already had our bird a few weeks ago. To American readers, hope yours was as tasty as ours!

I'll be back here with a Commitments of Traders update after Monday afternoon's data release.

Gotta Love the Commitments Data

A few new signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for the Nasdaq-100
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bullish for silver

Also, my very special (to me at least) signal for natural gas stays bullish one more week, then goes to cash on the open of Dec. 2. God love it! (If you traded the latest signal, you know what I mean - knock on wood.)

Hope you've had a good weekend, and good luck next week.

Natural Gas Goes Bullish; Banks and Silver to Cash: COT Data

Three signals take effect on the coming week's open based on the latest trader positioning as revealed in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports:

- bullish for natural gas
- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and silver

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these markets and the seven other markets I trade using the free COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a good week!

Trader Data Returns, Signals Bullish for Crude, Bearish for Bond

The weekly Commitments of Traders data is finally all up to date on the CFTC website.

And yes, that means the COTs Timer signals are back in action.

See my newly updated latest signals table to check how traders are positioning themselves in the 10 markets I'm trading using the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's data.

Natural Gas Bullish in a Week's Time

Some new signals take effect on this coming week's open:

- bullish for crude oil

- bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning yields would go up)

Also, copper goes to cash, but since I wasn't trading the earlier signal using the COT data, that's really neither here nor there.

Note too that my natural gas signal, in cash this coming week, goes to bullish in a week's time, on the open of Nov. 18.

Thanks for your patience during our forced hiatus due to the U.S. government shutdown.

I hope you've done well in the interim, and welcome back to COT-land! Good luck this week.

COT Schedule Back on Track on Friday

Apologies for the lack of a post or Commitments of Traders update this past weekend.

As previously mentioned, the COT reports were suspended during the U.S. government shutdown, and the missing weeks of COT data are still not fully reported on the website of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The CFTC says in this announcement it expects to catch up to its usual weekly report schedule by the end of this week.

So I should be able to return to my usual COT updates after this Friday afternoon's COT data release.

Thanks for your patience. I'll see you back here after Friday.

CFTC: Your COT Data is Still Incomplete! Please Advise

The U.S. government shutdown may have been over for a week, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission still hasn't reported in full its weekly Commitments of Traders data since the shutdown started.

That means the data for the recent period is pretty much useless for analysis and transparency purposes.

This week, the CFTC inexplicably has posted not the current week's trader positioning - but instead, trader positioning from the week of Oct. 1. That was the first week of the shutdown.

No doubt trading firms still reported their positioning to the CFTC during the shutdown. So I would presume the data exists somewhere in the bowels of the CFTC.

Let the CFTC Know You Care

The question is, why isn't the CFTC disclosing it?

Will the CFTC do so? If so, when? If not, why not?

No word on any of this on the CFTC's website.

I have written to the CFTC at marketreports@cftc.gov to ask what's going on.

And if you care about this data, please do so too and encourage the CFTC to promptly report the missing data.

Until the remaining data is disclosed, I'll have to continue avoiding updating my signals. Or I can wait until the moving average periods for my setups run out and then start trading with the data again.

But even if I do that, any historic analysis or backtesting of trading signals will be severely impaired if the missing data isn't eventually filled in. I hope the CFTC finds the time to do so!

UPDATE (Oct. 28): Just hear back from the CFTC. They are pledging to release the missing data over the next couple of weeks in an updated COT release schedule available here.

CFTC, Please Fill In Missing COT Data!

The U.S. government shutdown may be over, but the Commitments of Traders data still hasn't been updated for the current week or previous weeks since the shutdown started.

I'll be checking the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission website this weekend to see if any new data is posted.

The site currently gives "10/18/13" as the current report date. But the actual data is still the same as what's been there during the shutdown, which is the Sept. 24, 2013, COT report. The historic dataset on the site hasn't been updated either with any new data.

Missing Data Causes Statistical Issues

I'm hoping someone at the CFTC has the sense to fill in the missing weeks, instead of simply restarting with the data from here on.

Missing several weeks of numbers in a dataset like this causes huge problems for any proper statistical analysis.

Do you exclude the missing weeks of data and price changes? Do you fill them in with your own made-up "transitional" data? There's no good solution I can think of.

Thanks a lot, Tea Party!

Shutdown's Latest Victim: Commitments Data

Another victim of the U.S. government shutdown: your beloved COTs Timer trading system.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday failed to publish its weekly Commitments of Traders data on trader positioning. That means I don't have the data I need to update my signals for trading.

It means a few changes on my latest signals table. My signal for the Nasdaq-100 was bearish, but I will put it in cash due to the lack of data.

My signal for the S&P 500 is currently bullish, but the trade delay for that one is two weeks. So I will keep that one bullish for another two weeks because any new signal from data on Friday would have taken effect only in two weeks.

Meanwhile, my natural gas signal was going to cash next week anyway due to prior changes in trader positioning.

Please tune back in here for updates on the shutdown as it may affect the Commitments of Traders data.

Good luck next week and in the coming weeks to all.

Banks, Nikkei to Cash; Bearish for NDX

Three new signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading in my COTs Timer system:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100

- cash for the Nikkei

Also, my presently bearish signal for natural gas goes to cash in a week's time.

All this is thanks to the latest trader positioning as reported by the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports. See my latest signals table for more details.

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas Bearish, Bond to Cash

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on my trading system using the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for my natural gas signal
- cash for my 30-year Treasury bond signal

All other signals remain the same as last week.

See my latest signals table for the details and to see how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I'm trading using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Banks Brave and Bullish

Just one signal takes effect on the coming week's open of trading, based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Back to bullish for my BKX U.S. Bank Index.

See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out. Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Moves to Bullish, But Uncertainty Dominates

Uncertainty prevails for a second week among traders, according to the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and copper go to cash for the coming week's open of trading.

That means seven signals will be in cash, one will be bullish (S&P 500, which goes bullish this coming week, as announced in my last post), and two will be bearish.

But there might be good news in Friday's S&P 500 data.

The "smart money" commercial hedgers haven't been this relatively bullish as a percentage of total open interest since June 2012.

That was around when the huge push started that ultimately sent the index finally above its 2000-2007 double-top.

See more details on my latest signals table. Good luck this week.

Bullish Sprouts Peep Out

Traders appear to be poking their heads out from shelter and testing the waters with more bullish positioning.

So seems to say the latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday. See my latest signals table for details.

The latest data pushed my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index to bullish for this week's open of trading. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes bearish. (Rising yields tend to be bullish for equities.)

In addition, my S&P 500 signal goes from bearish to bullish in a week's time - i.e. on the open of trading the week of Sept. 9.

In commodities, my natural gas signal goes to cash after a week bullish.

Hope Canadian and U.S. readers had a good long weekend! Good luck this week.

Uncertainty Prevails in Trader Positioning: COT Data

And I thought last week's slew of bearish signals was a lot to chew on. The latest Commitments of Traders data makes last week look like small potatoes.

Traders are flying all over the place with contradictory positioning in various markets, seemingly unsure what to do. There's just a lot of uncertainty out there.

Last week's overwhelmingly bearish posturing has evolved into something more like just-get-me-off-the-bus.

It adds up to a bunch of cash signals (my latest signals table has all the details) for the markets I'm trading using the free weekly Commitments of Traders data.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes from bullish to bearish this coming week. And my Nikkei signal remains bearish.

But these markets move to cash: Nasdaq-100, BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond.

Even my bullish natural gas signal will go to cash in a week's time - i.e. on the open the week of Sept. 2.

Good luck in these trying times!

Bearish Move Accelerates in COT Data

Woah - the bearish move is accelerating in trader positioning, according to the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data.

A wash of red ink covers my latest signals table.

Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading:

- cash for natural gas (which then goes bullish the following week)

- bearish for the Nikkei, copper and crude oil

Also, my S&P 500 signal goes bearish in a week's time (on the open the week of August 26).

Keep your head down!

S&P 500 To Go Bearish Aug. 26; Natural Gas To Go To Cash Aug. 19

Looks like the silly season is upon us a little early this year. I'm talking about the often-wacky September-October stretch, which sometimes sees hiccups, crashes and other assorted market mayhem.

To wit, the latest Commitments of Traders report has turned my latest signals table somewhat upside down, with a mess of new signals:

- S&P 500: Happily bullish since March 18, the "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally given up the ghost. Their heavily bearish net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest puts my signal into the bearish column with a two-week delay (i.e. on the open the week of Aug. 26).

- Natural gas: My su-weet signal for natural gas stays bearish one more week - now that one's been a cu-raaaazy ride - then I'm back in cash.

- Gold and silver: These two dogs are finally going from bullish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

Good luck this week.

Confusing Data For Equities in Latest COT Data

Odd mixed signals in the latest weekly Commitments of Traders report.

The S&P 500 commercial hedgers keep getting more heavily bearish in their futures and options positioning, moving to just a hair away from reversing my bullish signal.

Meanwhile, traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract got more bullish and sent my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index from cash to bullish on the coming week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for all the gory details of the latest COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My bearish signal for the Nikkei goes to cash on this week's open.

And yet, my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes bullish on the weekly open - which should be a bearish portent for equities.

Amid all this, my natural gas signal remains faithfully bearish one more week.

It's fascinating data - but trying to make sense of the COT reports can sometimes make your head hurt. Good luck this week!

Bearish Turn for Nasdaq-100

As equity markets enjoy a powerful rally, trader positioning is looking more bearish, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report, which shows how large trading institutions are positioned in 200-plus markets, put my signal for the Nasdaq-100 index into the bearish column.

The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.

It's based on the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more bearish, while the wrong-way large speculators, whom I fade, got more bullish.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in this and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options have also gotten strongly more bearish in the latest data, but not quite enough to end my bullish signal, which has been in effect since mid-March.

My Nikkei signal has been bearish since July 8.

My signal for natural gas, which has been short since May 20, remains bearish, and the data shows no signs of reversal (though that can of course change from week to week).

Good luck this week!

Three-Week Bank Bullish Signal Ends

One new signal takes effect on the open of trading next week - and all else remains the same in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The new signal: cash for my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which has been bullish for three weeks.

I've just updated my latest signals table with the latest COT data on trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the CFTC's reports.

Have a good weekend, and good luck this week. See you after next week's COT report.

Bond to Cash

My signal for the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash on this week's open of trading. That's based on the latest trader positioning in bond futures and options as revealed by Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on this free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See more details on positioning in this and the other markets I trade on my latest signals table.

Good luck this week!

Bearish Turn for Nikkei

New signal for this week based on the Commitments of Traders reports: bearish for the Nikkei Stock Average.

That signal would have taken effect on this week's open of trading, but there was a delay in the release of last week's COT report due to the July 4 holiday. And I didn't get around to updating my spreadsheets until this morning. Very sorry for the delay.

Doesn't look like the Nikkei has moved too much since the week's open, so I'm going to probably put on the position right now after I check for an appropriate security to do it with.

Unfortunately, the bearish Nikkei ETFs out there have very low volume, so I sometimes don't do bearish trades for the Nikkei just because I don't like the securities available.

Also for next week's open, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes to cash.

See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the recent COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

I'll be on the road for the next few days so my next update may be slightly delayed again. Apologies in advance -- and good luck this week.

Holiday Delay for COT Report

The past week's normally scheduled Commitments of Traders report is delayed until Monday afternoon because of the July 4 holiday. See you sometime after that release for my usual update.

Banking on Banks

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark for U.S. financials, goes bullish on next week's open of trading.

That's thanks in part to large speculators improving their futures and options positioning in the three-month Eurodollar contract, a closely watched indicator of liquidity in the financial system.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

All my other signals based on this data remain the same. That includes my bearish signal for natural gas, which has been doing nicely again. (Knock on wood!)

But if you're thinking of jumping in on that one now, keep in mind that my signals are backtested to have a certain probability of making money from open to close of the trade. Getting in part way through a signal isn't part of the backtesting.

Have a good weekend, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers, eh!

Big Bearish Move in Nikkei Ends Six-Month Signal

Big news for Japan's Nikkei Stock Average in this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report.

Commercial hedgers and small traders in Nikkei futures and options have dramatically reversed their long-time bullish open interest.

Their move suddenly ends my six-month bullish signal for the Nikkei, which has done very well. The signal goes to cash as of next week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the Nikkei and other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The commercial hedgers made an especially big move, with their Nikkei positioning plummeting from an extraordinary 3.1 standard deviations above average last week to 0.1 standard deviations above.

In other news, my bearish signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index also ends next week, moving to cash.

Good luck next week, and Joyeuse St-Jean to Quebec readers!

Traders Tilt Bullish During Selloff, CFTC Data Shows

Copper goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading, while my signal for the Nasdaq-100 goes from bearish to bullish.

That's based on the latest weekly data in the Commitments of Traders reports, which detail trillions of dollars in futures and options positions in 200-plus markets.

I use the free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to get trading signals in 10 markets. See my latest signals table for more details on current positioning.

Other data shows traders in equities putting on positions that I interpret to be more bullish during the ongoing selloff, as you can see from the data for the Nikkei (which has been on a profitably bullish signal since Dec. 3, 2012) and the S&P 500.

Even the data for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which is currently on a bearish signal, is looking more bullish lately. My signal for U.S. financials will go to cash or bullish in a week's time.

Good luck in the coming week, and Happy Father's Day for dad readers out there!

Crude Oil From Bullish to Cash

My three-week-old long signal for crude oil comes to an end on the coming week's open of trading.

That's based on the latest trader positioning in crude oil futures and options as revealed by the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

I've updated my latest signals table with the latest positioning in crude oil and the other nine markets I'm trading using this free data.

My other signals remain the same:

- bullish for the S&P 500 and the Nikkei
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nasdaq-100 index
- bullish on gold and silver
- bearish for copper and natural gas
- bearish on the 30-year Treasury bond

Yes, kind of a mixed bag! But that's the way the COT cookie crumbles much of the time. The data is usually fairly contradictory, which is why most people don't have much of an idea of what to do with it.

Good luck this week!

Banks Could Take a Hit, Trader Data Says

I'm going short U.S. financials on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has turned bearish based on the trader positioning in the latest weekly COT report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other markets I'm trading using this great free data, which reveals trillions of dollars of positioning in over 200 markets.

My other signals remain the same for the coming week. Good luck this week!

Down on Copper

Bearish news for copper. The "smart money" commercial hedgers have gotten significantly bearish on copper in their net futures and options positioning as compared to recent data, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report.

That's helped push my copper trading signal into the bearish column. The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on the copper positioning and how traders are positioned in the nine other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Good luck next week.

Short Natural Gas, Long Crude Oil: Says COT Data

I'm getting short natural gas and long crude oil. Those are my two signals taking effect on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.

In natural gas, large speculator firms and small traders both have accumulated highly bearish positioning in their futures and options total open interest. My backtesting suggests it's best to trade alongside these two trader groups in natural gas.

Note that most other watchers of the COT data say you should always trade opposite to the large specs and small traders - often called the "dumb money." But these tend to be people who've never actually tested the data properly!

In crude oil, the large specs (whom I do fade in this market) and small traders (whom I follow) are both now lined up to give me a bullish signal.

In silver, my bullish position has hit its stop as the price of silver has dropped. My usual practice when a position is stopped out is to consider a trade in the opposite direction, a little trick I learned from Stephen Vita's excellent Alchemy of Trading website.

Have a good long weekend, Canadian readers, and good luck to all next week.

All Quiet in Land O' Commitments of Traders

All quiet in Commitments of Traders land.

No new signals this week from my trading system based on the weekly COT reports issued by the lovely and talented U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

But you can still get hours of enjoyment and infotainment by checking my latest signals table, which details trader positioning in the 10 markets I trade using the COT data.

Have a good weekend, and Happy Mother's Day, mom, as well as to all you other hard-working mom readers. Good luck next week.

Natural Gas Gives Up Gains, Goes to Cash

Just one signal takes effect this coming week in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports: cash for my natural gas signal.

It's been bullish since March 25, but trader positioning has lately turned decisively bearish. The signal could even go bearish in two weeks' time, depending on how the positioning evolves.

The signal, which has proven highly profitable over the past couple of years, looked like it was going to be another winner until this past week, when natural gas suddenly collapsed in price. The signal is now about even.

It's a little disappointing, but it doesn't really bother me. The key in all trading, in my opinion, is a good long-term record of wins, not trying to win every time. See my FAQs page for more thoughts on how I handle signals that don't do well.

And see my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in various markets I'm trading.

Good luck this week.

CFTC Data Bearish for Bond

A couple of signals worth noting based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC:

- Bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield), taking effect on this week's open. That's because of excessively bullish positioning in bond futures and options by the commercial hedgers and small traders - both of whom I fade.

- Cash for natural gas next week. My signal has been bullish since March 25 and will remain so this week. It goes to cash on next week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the free weekly COT reports of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry again for the delayed post this week. I was travelling over the weekend from Costa Rica, but I'm back home now just in time for some beautiful Canadian spring weather. Good luck this week.

Quiet Week in COT Land

Quiet week in Commitments of Traders land this week, according to the latest weekly report from the CFTC.

No new signals to report taking effect this week! All existing signals are therefore still in effect. See my latest signals table for details.

Travel advisory: I'll be on the road next weekend returning to Quebec after a beautiful four months in Montezuma, Costa Rica.

Gracias, Montezuma! Pura vida.

We'll miss our friends (human, monkey and other), and thanks for another trip full of nice memories. Pura vida.

I hope to update this blog based on the data from next week's COT report shortly after our return the week of April 29. Sorry for the delay.

I'll take a chance and hold my existing positions until I'm able to do the update.

Good luck this week.

Crude Oil to Cash

Not much change in trader positioning this week, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

A single new signal takes effect on this week's open of trading: cash for my crude oil signal.

Otherwise, my signals remain the same (as you can see on my latest signals table):

- bullish for the S&P 500
- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for the Nasdaq-100
- bullish for natural gas
- bullish for the Nikkei
- bullish for gold
- bullish for silver
- cash for copper
- cash for the 30-year Treasury bond

Good luck this week!

Bullish Move for Gold, Crude Oil in CFTC's COT Data

Two new signals took effect this week based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest weekly Commitments of Traders data dump:

- bullish for crude oil
- bullish for gold

The crude signal will remain bullish just for one week, but gold could last a while. No way to know week to week, but the trader positioning is highly supportive of a bullish gold position this week - at least according to my interpretation of price moves based on historic data.

That doesn't mean the signal will be right - or that gold will move up this week. As you'll see from my backtesting results table (scroll down for the link), all of my setups are far from being 100-percent correct, even in the idealized world of backtesting. It's all about probabilities.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the CFTC's free COT data.

Sorry again for my delayed post this time around. I was visiting beautiful Bocas del Toro in Panama - a gorgeous archipelago of Caribbean islands with friendly people, a funky little town and lots of nice corrals and reefs to swim around. Highly recommended.

Good luck this week.

Delay for Next COT Update

Bocas: Wow!

I'll need to delay my next Commitments of Traders update because I'll be making a little trip to Bocas del Toro, in Panama. It's supposed to be beautiful.

I'll be back early next week with my take on the latest COT data.

Sorry for the delay.

I'll take a chance and hold existing positions until I do my next update, which you can look out for next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Cash for Gold and Crude Oil

A couple of signals take effect on next week's open of trading in my system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for my gold and crude oil signals

Meanwhile, the latest COT report issued this afternoon shows the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more confident in their bullish net futures and options positioning in the S&P 500. That signal is now bullish.

See my latest signals table for more details on what the big money is doing in these and the other markets I trade using this free data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Happy Easter - and good luck next week (especially on April Fool's Day!)

Natural Gas a Go, Banks Go Slow, Outta the Bond

Three signals take effect this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for natural gas
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- cash for the 30-year Treasury bond

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commish. Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for the S&P 500 (this, after commercial hedgers shifted heavily toward more bullish positioning in their futures and options holdings)
- cash for my BKX Bank Index setup (which had been bullish)

Also, in a week's time, my natural gas signal goes from cash to bullish (i.e. on the open March 25).

Check my just-updated latest signals table for all the fascinating details of the COT data, as issued weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week - and Happy St. Paddy's Day!

Bearish Turn for Nasdaq-100, Crude Oil

Back home after a nice trip to Manuel Antonio, Costa Rica. Lovely place, but it's nice to be back in peaceful Montezuma!

Sorry again for the delayed Commitments of Traders update this time around. I've just updated my latest signals table based on Friday's COT report. A few big moves in the data last week in some of the markets I'm trading, as you can see on that table.

Two signals take effect this week: bearish for the Nasdaq-100 and crude oil. Meanwhile, commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options remain highly bullish, as first reported in last week's post. That signal goes to bullish on next week's open of trading.

Good luck this week, and see you back here after Friday's COT data comes out.

Delay for Next COT Update

My next Commitments of Traders report will be delayed until late on Monday or early Tuesday because I'll be on the road. Apologies!

I'm going to take the chance of holding my existing positions until I've had the chance to update my spreadsheets.

Have a great weekend.

Huge Bullish Swing in S&P 500 Positioning; Silver Bullish Too

Big sudden shift this past week in the futures and options positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in the S&P 500.

These folks, highly bearish for the first part of this year, have just plowed a bunch of their money into much more bullish positioning, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

The shift is so extreme it has pushed my S&P 500 signal into the bullish column after two months of being short. The new signal takes effect with the two-week trade delay I use for this signal - i.e. the open of the week of March 18.

See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other markets I'm trading using the weekly COT data.

Two signals take effect this coming week: cash for my Nasdaq-100 signal and bullish for silver. (Gold had already been bullish since early January, but now silver joins the fun!)

Have a good rest of your weekend, and good luck next week.

Bearish Natural Gas Signal Over Based on CFTC's Latest COT Data

New signals taking effect this coming week based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for natural gas and copper
- bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I'm trading based on the free weekly COT reports, issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Banks Bullish, Bond to Cash

Two signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and cash for the 30-year Treasury bond (which had been bullish previously).

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Hope Canadian and U.S. readers are having a good holiday today, and good luck to all this week.

Bearish Turn for Copper in Trader Data

Had a great trip to beautiful San Juan del Sur, Nicaragua, and I'm now back for my overdue Commitments of Traders update. I've just updated my latest signals table with the data as of Friday's COT report.

Only one signal takes effect this week: bearish for copper. Other signals remain the same as last week.

See my signals table for more details on the trader positioning in each of the markets I'm trading using the COT data from the CFTC. Sorry again for the delayed post.

Good luck this week.

Delay for Next Update

I'll be on the road for the next few days and will need to delay my next post and update of my latest signals table. This means the information won't be posted before next week's open of trading.

I'm going to take a chance and keep my current positions until I can do my next update.

Watch for the updated information sometime Tuesday. Sorry about the delay.

Smooth Sailing in COT Data

After a flurry of trader positioning changes a few weeks ago, now there is silence. No signals take effect next week based on the latest trader data as revealed in the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

My existing signals all remain in effect. You know what those are, don't you! Of course you do because you devotedly check my latest signals table to note with great care the latest developments in this fascinating and free data on how the big boys are positioned in 150-odd markets.

Wishing you a good weekend from sunny and beautiful Montezuma, Costa Rica. Now off to make some mojitos. Pura vida!

Going Short Natural Gas Thanks to Trader Data; Cash for Banks and Copper

Three signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest data from the weekly Commitments of Traders reports:

- bearish for natural gas
- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and copper

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in these and the other markets I trade using the free COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Good luck this week!

Banks Go Bullish; Gas, Crude in Cash

Three signals take effect on the coming week's trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for natural gas (then bearish in a week's time)

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- cash for crude oil

Other signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for all the details on the latest trader positioning as revealed by the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck next week - and happy birthday to me!

Bearish Lean Deepens in Trader Data; Short Copper, S&P 500, NDX and Crude

Trader positioning continues leaning in a bearish direction, with one more market flipping into the bearish column: copper.

That makes four of my signals bearish. The others are S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and crude oil. As well, the 30-year Treasury is bullish - a generally bearish development for equities.

The Nikkei is the only equity market remaining bullish in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders data.

Among commodities, gold and natural gas are bullish (but gas goes to cash in a week's time). Silver is in cash, as is the BKX U.S. Bank Index.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the markets I'm trading using the free COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck next week, and Happy New Year to Ukrainian readers! (Veseloho Novoho Roku!)

Busy Week in COT Land: Six New Signals This Week

Another very active week this week among traders as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports. My trading strategy based on the COT data gives six signals taking effect on this coming week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for the new signals, plus more detailed info on how trader positioning has evolved over the past couple of weeks.

New signals: bearish for S&P 500 and crude oil; bullish for natural gas, the 30-year Treasury bond and gold; and cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index.

Merry Christmas to Ukrainian readers (Khrystos Narodivsya!), and best wishes in 2013!