COTs Timer: Bullish Move for Gold, Crude Oil in CFTC's COT Data

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Bullish Move for Gold, Crude Oil in CFTC's COT Data

Two new signals took effect this week based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest weekly Commitments of Traders data dump:

- bullish for crude oil
- bullish for gold

The crude signal will remain bullish just for one week, but gold could last a while. No way to know week to week, but the trader positioning is highly supportive of a bullish gold position this week - at least according to my interpretation of price moves based on historic data.

That doesn't mean the signal will be right - or that gold will move up this week. As you'll see from my backtesting results table (scroll down for the link), all of my setups are far from being 100-percent correct, even in the idealized world of backtesting. It's all about probabilities.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the CFTC's free COT data.

Sorry again for my delayed post this time around. I was visiting beautiful Bocas del Toro in Panama - a gorgeous archipelago of Caribbean islands with friendly people, a funky little town and lots of nice corrals and reefs to swim around. Highly recommended.

Good luck this week.

2 comments:

chma said...: Wow, nice bullish move in gold ;-) Perfect anti timing.; 14 April 2013 at 07:59
Alex Roslin said...: Thanks for your message, Chima. Yes, some signals don't work, as I'm very clear about on this blog! Please check my FAQs page for more on signals that don't seem to be working.

Best regards,
Alex; 20 April 2013 at 12:08

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About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.